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US TSYS: Finishing Near Lows for the Week

US TSYS
  • After a firmer start, Treasuries have retreated to lows for the week late Friday, no obvious headline or flow related driver with the Federal Reserve entering their self imposed media blackout regarding policy at midnight.
  • The Dec'24 10Y contract is has fallen to 110-30.5 - matching the midweek low as it traded through 200-dma technical support of 111-04. The next significant support is at 110-13 (61.8% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). 10Y yield has climbed to 4.2419 +.0302. Curves modestly steeper: 2s10s +.639 at 13.520, 5s30s +.403 at 44.246.
  • Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly lower vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative steady at -23.6bp, Dec'24 -43.7bp (-42.9bp), Jan'25 -60.6bp (-60.1bp), Mar'25 -79.2bp (-81.0bp).
  • Mixed data included better than expected Durable goods orders, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items. Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment was stronger than expected in October as it was revised up to 70.5 (prelim 68.9) for a small increase from 70.1 in September. Both current conditions and expectations were revised higher. 1Y inflation expectations: 2.7% (cons & prelim 2.9) in Oct after 2.7% in Sep, surprisingly remaining at what was the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • Slow start to the week ahead, focus is on next Friday's October employment report.
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