MNI BRIEF: December Fed Cut 'Absolutely Not' Off Table - Daly

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Dec 3

MNI BRIEF: China-Based UK Firms Facing Challenges

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1996 Tue; -1.92% Y/Y

MNI NBP WATCH: Another Policy Hold, Dovish Communications Tilt

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece, EU Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US BLS: JOLTS OPENINGS RATE 7.744M IN OCT

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Finishing Near Lows for the Week

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • After a firmer start, Treasuries have retreated to lows for the week late Friday, no obvious headline or flow related driver with the Federal Reserve entering their self imposed media blackout regarding policy at midnight.
  • The Dec'24 10Y contract is has fallen to 110-30.5 - matching the midweek low as it traded through 200-dma technical support of 111-04. The next significant support is at 110-13 (61.8% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). 10Y yield has climbed to 4.2419 +.0302. Curves modestly steeper: 2s10s +.639 at 13.520, 5s30s +.403 at 44.246.
  • Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly lower vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative steady at -23.6bp, Dec'24 -43.7bp (-42.9bp), Jan'25 -60.6bp (-60.1bp), Mar'25 -79.2bp (-81.0bp).
  • Mixed data included better than expected Durable goods orders, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items. Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment was stronger than expected in October as it was revised up to 70.5 (prelim 68.9) for a small increase from 70.1 in September. Both current conditions and expectations were revised higher. 1Y inflation expectations: 2.7% (cons & prelim 2.9) in Oct after 2.7% in Sep, surprisingly remaining at what was the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • Slow start to the week ahead, focus is on next Friday's October employment report.
239 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • After a firmer start, Treasuries have retreated to lows for the week late Friday, no obvious headline or flow related driver with the Federal Reserve entering their self imposed media blackout regarding policy at midnight.
  • The Dec'24 10Y contract is has fallen to 110-30.5 - matching the midweek low as it traded through 200-dma technical support of 111-04. The next significant support is at 110-13 (61.8% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). 10Y yield has climbed to 4.2419 +.0302. Curves modestly steeper: 2s10s +.639 at 13.520, 5s30s +.403 at 44.246.
  • Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly lower vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative steady at -23.6bp, Dec'24 -43.7bp (-42.9bp), Jan'25 -60.6bp (-60.1bp), Mar'25 -79.2bp (-81.0bp).
  • Mixed data included better than expected Durable goods orders, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items. Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment was stronger than expected in October as it was revised up to 70.5 (prelim 68.9) for a small increase from 70.1 in September. Both current conditions and expectations were revised higher. 1Y inflation expectations: 2.7% (cons & prelim 2.9) in Oct after 2.7% in Sep, surprisingly remaining at what was the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • Slow start to the week ahead, focus is on next Friday's October employment report.