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Free AccessUS TSYS: HEADLINE EMPLOY DATA MISS, BIG-UP REVISION JULY/AUG
US TSY SUMMARY: Finish weaker but off session lows. Looked like algos
focused on
NFP miss of +134k as rates knee-jerk rallying, BUT up-revision for Jul/Aug
higher than expected (+87k) spurred heavy selling.
- Equities weak w/tech (FANG) and transports underperforming. US$ see-sawed
lower DXY -.122 to 95.628 vs. 95.516L
- Appeared flattener positions getting the tap, unwind stop outs contributed to
heavy sell flow in lond end
- Relative calm heading into data, two-way position squaring heading into data
and extended holiday weekend for rates and currencies, prop and fast$ bought
near lows in 5s and 10s earlier, flattener unwind interest takes a pause,
swap-tied buying in 4s and 10s.
- Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-23.5 (2.885%), 5Y 99-03 (3.071%), 10Y 97-01 (3.227%), 30Y
92-17 (3.399%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading moderately lower in the middle of a wide
range,
large volume (TYZ 2.13M), curves steeper; update:
* 2s10s +2.496, 33.989 (30.235L/35.097H);
* 2s30s +3.653, 51.279 (47.008L/52.813H);
* 5s30s +2.666, 32.832 (29.483L/33.909H);
Current futures levels:
* Dec Ultra bonds down -1-07/32 at 149-01 (148-17L/150-15H)
* Dec 30-yr Bond futures down 24/32 at 137-05 (136-26L/138-02H)
* Dec 10-yr futures down 7.5/32 at 117-20 (117-16.5L/117-31H)
* Dec 5-yr futures down 2.75/32 at 111-30 (111-27.5L/112-03H)
* Dec 2-yr futures down 0.5/32 at 105-7.25 (105-6.25L/105-8.75H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: White pack trading mixed while reds through
golds
trade mildly lower, strong volume with Red Dec seeing the heaviest (EDZ9 470k).
Current White pack (Dec'18-Sep'19):
* Dec'18 +0.005 at 97.340
* Mar'19 +0.005 at 97.135
* Jun'19 -0.005 at 96.955
* Sep'19 -0.015 at 96.825
* Red pack (Dec'19-Sep'20) -0.030-0.025
* Green pack (Dec'20-Sep'21) -0.030-0.020
* Blue pack (Dec'21-Sep'21) -0.025-0.020
* Gold pack (Dec'22-Sep'22) -0.020-0.015
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N +0.0065 to 2.1717% (+0.0004/wk)
* 1 Month -0.0039 to 2.2767% (+0.0162/wk)
* 3 Month -0.0016 to 2.4080% (+0.0097/wk)
* 6 Month -0.0007 to 2.6228% (+0.0190/wk)
* 1 Year +0.0015 to 2.9583% (+0.0397/wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.18% vs. 2.20% prior, $816B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.17% vs. 2.18% prior, $420B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.17% vs. 2.18% prior, $405B
PIPELINE: $48.125B priced on Week
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
No new issuance Friday
-
$750M Priced Thursday
10/04 $750M *AIB Group 5Y +175
OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
- Oct 08 Sep ETI (110.88, --) 1000ET
- Oct 09 Sep NFIB Small Business Index (108.8, --) 0600ET
- Oct 09 06-Oct Redbook retail sales m/m (0.3%, --) 0855ET
- Oct 09 Oct IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (55.7, --) 1000ET
- Oct 09 Chi Fed Pres Evans, '18 Opportunity Finance Network (OFN) Conf, Chi
1000ET
- Oct 09 Oct NY Fed expectations survey 1100ET
- Oct 09 NY Fed President John Williams on "Recent Developments in US Monetary
Policy", NY Fed/Indonesia Central Bank Forum, Tanjung Benoa, Indonesia, Q&A.
2115ET
- Oct 09 NY Fed Pres Williams, press conf, NY Fed-Bank Indonesia Central Bank
Forum, Indonesia. 2230ET
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/Screen:
* 10,000 Short Mar 67 puts at 18.5 vs 9669.5/0.58%
* +13,500 Short Dec 65/66/67 1.5x2.5x1 put fly for net 2
* -10,000 Short Mar 67/68 put sprd at 8 vs 9671.5/0.12%
* +10,000 short Mar 77 calls, 1.0
* +4,000 Short Dec 67/68 2x1 put sprd at 0.5
* +10,000 short Dec 70/71 call spds, 1.0
* 4,500 Short Mar 77 calls at 1 vs 9673/0.10%
* +5,000 short Mar 63/65 2x1 put spds, 0.0
* +7,500 short Nov 70/71 call strip, 2.0
* -5,000 Blue Dec 67/70 2x1 put spds, 4.0
* +15,000 Red Dec 63/66/68 put trees, 7.25 legged
* -20,000 short Nov 67 puts, 6.0
* +25,000 Dec 70 puts at cab, paper looking for more offers
* 11,000 Long Green Dec 55 puts at 4, on screen
Tsy options, Pit/screen:
Blocks, 1251:51ET
* +12,299 FVZ 113.5/114 call spds, 1/64 net vs. 111-27.25/0.04%
* -4,000 TYZ 116/116.5/117 put trees, hear 4/64 net debit/roll-down
* 6,300 TYZ 120/120.5 call spds, 2/64
* +18,000 TYZ 116.5/117.5 put sprd at 24 vs 24/0.30%
* -30,000 TYX 116.5/117.5 put sprd at 14 vs 24/0.25%
* -2,000 TYX 117 puts at 13 vs 21.5/0.30%, note recent -5k sold at 12
* +4,000 USZ 134/136 put sprd vs USX 135.5/137 put sprd for net 3
* +2,000 TYX 116.7/118.7 put over risk reversals, 3/64 vs. 117-24.5/0.34%
* +1,500 TYX 118.5/119 2x3 call spds, 7/64
* -1,000 TYX 118 straddles, 53/64
* +5,000 TYG 115/116 2x1 put spds, 6/64
* -5,000 TYX 117 puts at 12
Block, 07:52:41ET,
* 7,000 WK1 TYV 118 calls at 7 vs 117-26/0.33%, post time
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.