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US TSYS: Heavy Issuance In An Otherwise Light Docket

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries hold a little cheaper on the day, with the main driver being some risk-on after the relatively limited nature of Israel’s strikes on Iranian military targets at the weekend.  
  • They are however off lows having been aided by spillover from a second step lower in oil futures which has spurred EGB outperformance.
  • Cash yields are 0.5-2bp higher, steepening with 2s10s at 15bps (+1.1bp).  
  • TYZ4 is at 110-27+ (- 06+) but off 110-18+ seen with the Asia open, on strong cumulative volumes approaching 440k. The bear trend has extended with second support at 110-13 (61.8% retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont.).   
  • Today’s docket is heavily centered around 2Y and 5Y supply, tests of demand for the front end to belly. Both came in on the screws last month but with less favorable details, although WI yields are currently tracking 58bp and 56bp higher than last month’s high yield.
  • Data: Dallas Fed manufacturing Oct (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note (1130ET), $70B 5Y Note (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $72B 26W Bills (1130ET), $81B 13W Bills (1300ET)
  • Fedspeak: FOMC blackout
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  • Treasuries hold a little cheaper on the day, with the main driver being some risk-on after the relatively limited nature of Israel’s strikes on Iranian military targets at the weekend.  
  • They are however off lows having been aided by spillover from a second step lower in oil futures which has spurred EGB outperformance.
  • Cash yields are 0.5-2bp higher, steepening with 2s10s at 15bps (+1.1bp).  
  • TYZ4 is at 110-27+ (- 06+) but off 110-18+ seen with the Asia open, on strong cumulative volumes approaching 440k. The bear trend has extended with second support at 110-13 (61.8% retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont.).   
  • Today’s docket is heavily centered around 2Y and 5Y supply, tests of demand for the front end to belly. Both came in on the screws last month but with less favorable details, although WI yields are currently tracking 58bp and 56bp higher than last month’s high yield.
  • Data: Dallas Fed manufacturing Oct (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note (1130ET), $70B 5Y Note (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $72B 26W Bills (1130ET), $81B 13W Bills (1300ET)
  • Fedspeak: FOMC blackout