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US TSYS: Holding Near Lows After FOMC Minutes 25Bp Debate

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries are near late session lows after Wednesday's FOMC minutes showed "some" voting members failed to sway the 50bp cut majority at the September policy meeting.
  • "Noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision," the report said.
  • Muted reaction to a small tail at the Tsy 10Y auction reopen (4.066% high yield vs. 4.061% WI). The Dec'24 10Y futures trade -9 at 112-06 after the bell vs. 112-04.5 low and above round number technical support of 112-00. Curves have flattened mildly after the bell, 2s10s -.230 at 4.933, 5s30s -1.552 at 43.017. Moderate volumes (TYZ4 1.4M) as market focus turned towards Thursday morning's CPI inflation measures for September.
  • Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • Weekly Jobless claims, a few more Fed speakers (Cook, Barkin and Williams) and the 30Y Bond auction re-open are also on tap.
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  • Treasuries are near late session lows after Wednesday's FOMC minutes showed "some" voting members failed to sway the 50bp cut majority at the September policy meeting.
  • "Noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision," the report said.
  • Muted reaction to a small tail at the Tsy 10Y auction reopen (4.066% high yield vs. 4.061% WI). The Dec'24 10Y futures trade -9 at 112-06 after the bell vs. 112-04.5 low and above round number technical support of 112-00. Curves have flattened mildly after the bell, 2s10s -.230 at 4.933, 5s30s -1.552 at 43.017. Moderate volumes (TYZ4 1.4M) as market focus turned towards Thursday morning's CPI inflation measures for September.
  • Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • Weekly Jobless claims, a few more Fed speakers (Cook, Barkin and Williams) and the 30Y Bond auction re-open are also on tap.