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US TSYS: Late Additional Bid Sees 10Y Yields Down 23bps On The Week

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries rallied into the early cash close (1400ET) with the small bid seen in the minutes ahead of the month-end close at 1300ET growing more notably in the hour afterwards.
  • Cash yields closed 7.6-9.5bp lower from Wednesday’s close, with declines led by 10s being driven by real yields falling 8.3bps.
  • The 10Y yield of 4.1685% has slipped 23bps on the week, touching its lowest since Oct 22 via a recent cycle high of 4.501% on Nov 15.
  • TYH5 closed at 111-05+ (+ 08+) having touched a session high of 111-08 just before the month-end index close at 1300ET. It’s close at 1315ET came prior to the latest additional bid in cash trading.
  • It’s seen a step closer to resistance at 111-14 (50-day EMA). Clearance there could suggest that the recent uptrend is more than a short-term corrective bull cycle.
  • Fed Funds price 16.5bp of cuts for the Dec 18 FOMC decision vs ending last week closer to a 50/50 decision between pausing or cutting another 25bps.
  • Next week is headlined by the November payrolls report, watched after October’s weak report was at least partly impacted by adverse weather along with an exceptionally low initial response rate. We do however also hear from the Fed's Powell, Waller & Williams and get ISM Services.
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  • Treasuries rallied into the early cash close (1400ET) with the small bid seen in the minutes ahead of the month-end close at 1300ET growing more notably in the hour afterwards.
  • Cash yields closed 7.6-9.5bp lower from Wednesday’s close, with declines led by 10s being driven by real yields falling 8.3bps.
  • The 10Y yield of 4.1685% has slipped 23bps on the week, touching its lowest since Oct 22 via a recent cycle high of 4.501% on Nov 15.
  • TYH5 closed at 111-05+ (+ 08+) having touched a session high of 111-08 just before the month-end index close at 1300ET. It’s close at 1315ET came prior to the latest additional bid in cash trading.
  • It’s seen a step closer to resistance at 111-14 (50-day EMA). Clearance there could suggest that the recent uptrend is more than a short-term corrective bull cycle.
  • Fed Funds price 16.5bp of cuts for the Dec 18 FOMC decision vs ending last week closer to a 50/50 decision between pausing or cutting another 25bps.
  • Next week is headlined by the November payrolls report, watched after October’s weak report was at least partly impacted by adverse weather along with an exceptionally low initial response rate. We do however also hear from the Fed's Powell, Waller & Williams and get ISM Services.