US TSYS: MARCH NFP BEATS ESTIMATES, TREASURIES RALLY?

US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys near top end of the range despite better than expected

March employ data (+196k vs. +175 est). Heavy chop in early trade w/ focus on

drop in manufacturing jobs by 6,000, and wages rising only 3.2 vs. 3.4%. 

- Rates started off weaker w/carry-over risk-on tone from late Thu after China's

Xi called for a quick conclusion to text of a bilateral trade accord w/ U.S.

Midday heads told different story: White House says no timetable for China trade

talks. Equities firmer late, however (SPX +10.5, 2893.25); US$ index firmer/near

high (DXY +.097, 97.405).

- Despite mfg job and wage drop, Eurodlr whites under pressure all day as Fed

rate cut chances eased w/ apparent focus on the jobs creation figure. Moderate

volume trade (TYM only 1.3M) with second half action evaporating quickly.

- Slow start to the week ahead, focus more on midweek CPI and PPI releases. On

tap for Monday: February factory new orders; March Employment Trends Index

(ETI); NY Fed expectations survey for April.

- The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 2.3433%, 5-Yr is down 1bps at 2.3104%, 10-Yr is

down 1.6bps at 2.4989%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 2.9079%.

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Rates trade near top end of the range despite better than

expected March employ data (+196k vs. +175 est) -- focus on drop in

manufacturing jobs by 6,000, and wages rising only 3.2 vs. 3.4%. Futures held

narrow range for much of second half. Curve update: 

* 3M10Y  -1.392, 7.353 (L: 6.46 / H: 11.473)

* 2Y10Y  -2.081, 15.533 (L: 15.2 / H: 18.344)

* 2Y30Y  -1.578, 56.481 (L: 55.908 / H: 59.432)

* 5Y30Y  +0.043, 59.816 (L: 59.265 / H: 60.902)

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra futures (WN) up 9/32  at 165-7 (L: 164-01 / H: 165-17)

* Jun 30-Yr futures (US) up 7/32  at 147-29 (L: 147-01 / H: 148-03)

* Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) up 1/32  at 123-18.5 (L: 123-08.5 / H: 123-22)

* Jun 5-Yr futures (FV) steady at  at 115-15.5 (L: 115-10 / H: 115-18.75)

* Jun 2-Yr futures (TU) down 0.5/32  at 106-12.5 (L: 106-11 / H: 106-15)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Whites underperforming, strong data weighing on

rate-cut chances for year end. Futures mildly higher out the strip. Current

White pack (Jun'19-Mar'20):

* Jun 19 -0.005 at 97.435

* Sep 19 -0.015 at 97.485

* Dec 19 -0.010 at 97.505

* Mar 20 steady00 at 97.615

* Red Pack (Jun 20-Mar 21) steadysteady0 to +0.005

* Green Pack (Jun 21-Mar 22) +0.010 to +0.010

* Blue Pack (Jun 22-Mar 23) +0.015 to +0.020

* Gold Pack (Jun 23-Mar 24) +0.020 to +0.025

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N -0.0004 to 2.3937% (+0.0117/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0019 to 2.4716% (-0.0229/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0035 to 2.5921% (-0.0076/wk)

* 6 Month -0.0012 to 2.6446% (-0.0149/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0146 to 2.7511% (+0.0405/wk)

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume) 

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.46%, $1T

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.43%, $455B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.43%, $425B

US SWAPS: Marginally mixed after the bell, spd curve mildly steeper on light

second half flow. Modest rate paying in front end ahead next week's supply.

Latest spd levels:

Time (ET)   2Y Swap/Mid   5Y Swap/Mid   10Y Swap/Mid   30Y Swap/Mid

Fri 3:00    -0.12/10.38   -0.12/4.00     +0.38/-1.50   +0.44/-24.44

Fri Open    +0.50/11.00   +0.12/4.25     +0.31/-1.56   +0.25/-24.62

Thu 3:00    -0.50/10.62   +0.31/4.25     +0.38/-1.56   +0.62/-24.94

Thursday recap: Spds have reversed early narrowing to mildly wider across the

board, spd curve steepening out slightly. Recent unwinds of better earlier

receiving in 2s reported in addition to 2s4s7s receiver fly. Earlier: decent

front end receiving in 2s, over $1B nominal from 2.433-2.440%, keeping spds

tighter as ylds rise post data.

OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

08-Apr 1000 Feb factory new orders (0.1%, -0.6%)

08-Apr 1000 Feb factory orders ex transport (-0.2%, --)

08-Apr 1000 Mar ETI (111.16, --)

08-Apr 1100 Apr NY Fed expectations survey

08-Apr 1130 US TSY $B 13W bill auction (912796RZ4)

08-Apr 1130 US TSY $B 26W bill auction (912796RF8)

PIPELINE: $20.5B priced this week; issuance likely to slow into next earnings

cycle

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

04/?  $2.12B Staples 7NC3, 8NC3

04/?  Saudi Aramco

-

$750M priced Thursday

04/04 $750M *AutoZone $300M 5Y +87, $450M 10Y +127

Eurodollar/Tsy options:

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

* Update, total +20,000 Dec 78/83 call spds, 3.5 vs. 97.51 to .515/0.16% --

repeats early 10k Block

* +5,000 Mar 72 puts, 3.5 vs. 97.60/0.16%

* +4,000 short Dec 82/88 call spds, 6.5 vs. 97.765/0.16%

* +10,000 Dec 71/72 put spds, 1.5

* +10,000 Jun 75 calls, 1.25 vs. 97.435/0.22%

* +10,000 Dec 78/83 call spds, 3.5 vs. 97.515/0.16% -- repeats Block

Blocks, 1100:06ET

* 10,000 Dec 78/83 call spds, 3.5 vs. 97.515/0.16%

* -15,000 Jul 76/77/78/80 call condors, 0.75 vs. 97.51

* 10,000 Green May 83/85/86/87 put flys on screen, 1.5 net

* 2,000 Green Apr 75/76/77 1x3x2 put trees, 1.5 net

* Update, total 20,000 Dec 71/72 put spds, 1.5

* +5,000 Green Sep 72/73/75 put trees, 1.0

* -4,000 Green Sep/Blue Sep 78/81 call spd spd, ongoing conditional bull curve

flattener

Block, 0838:08ET

* +16,750 Green May 76 puts, 2.5

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

Implieds under pressure as underlying bid evaporates heading into midday

* -6,600 TYK 122.75/123.75 1x1.5 call spds at 20/64 vs. 123-20

Block, 0758:34

* +34,500 wk1 TY 123 puts, 3/64

* +11,500 wk2 TY 123 puts, 9/64

* +48,000 Wk2 TY 123 puts, 9/64

Block, 0745:03ET, 14k bought on screen late Thu at 4/64

* +8,000 TYK 124.5/125.5/126.5 call flys, 3/64 vs. 123-09.5/0.08%

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]