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US TSYS: Middle East Geopol Risk Overshadows US Data

US TSYS
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  • Treasuries look to finish higher, near Friday's closing levels amid waves of risk-on/safe haven support in the first half. Treasuries initially rallied with EGBs after Israel kicked off a ground assault in southern Lebanon. Levels extended the rally back to September 20 levels as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel.
  • Dec'24 10Y futures climbed to 115-00.5 high, near initial technical resistance of 115-02.5 (Sep 19 high). The rally did not translate to steeper curves, however, 2s10s flattening another -1.514 to 12.470 after Monday's move off near 20.0 high.
  • Treasury futures receded from session highs as IDF officials reported "no additional threats" after Iran missile attack largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis allowed to exit shelters. Dec'24 10Y futures currently trade 114-23 (+14), 10Y yield currently -.0437 at 3.7372%.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end gaining some momentum vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -34.9bp (-35.4bp), Dec'24 -70.8bp (-68.9bp), Jan'25 -102.3bp (-102.1bp).
  • Geopol risk overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher than expected job openings in JOLTS data. Focus turns to Wednesday's ADP private employ data ahead of Friday's headline September jobs data.
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  • Treasuries look to finish higher, near Friday's closing levels amid waves of risk-on/safe haven support in the first half. Treasuries initially rallied with EGBs after Israel kicked off a ground assault in southern Lebanon. Levels extended the rally back to September 20 levels as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel.
  • Dec'24 10Y futures climbed to 115-00.5 high, near initial technical resistance of 115-02.5 (Sep 19 high). The rally did not translate to steeper curves, however, 2s10s flattening another -1.514 to 12.470 after Monday's move off near 20.0 high.
  • Treasury futures receded from session highs as IDF officials reported "no additional threats" after Iran missile attack largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis allowed to exit shelters. Dec'24 10Y futures currently trade 114-23 (+14), 10Y yield currently -.0437 at 3.7372%.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end gaining some momentum vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -34.9bp (-35.4bp), Dec'24 -70.8bp (-68.9bp), Jan'25 -102.3bp (-102.1bp).
  • Geopol risk overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher than expected job openings in JOLTS data. Focus turns to Wednesday's ADP private employ data ahead of Friday's headline September jobs data.