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Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last


Under Pressure


Trend Condition Remains Bearish

     US TSYS SUMMARY: Treasuries ended Thurs mainly mildly weaker, 30Y higher
amid fairly rangey trading, curve flattening, and a mixed/OK $11B 10Y TIPS
reopening auction. 
- Morning more active: Tsys began NY higher, flatter after o/night range after
Tokyo saw  good buying by Jpn bsnks, insurers and asset mgrs and Asian central
banks and light sales; mixed flows in UK. 
- Early NY gain on futures buys 21,797 bought in TYZ 10y at 8:16 am ET and 5,050
buy at 8:18am ET; cross-mkt aid w/ Bunds. Firm data: -23K initial wkly jobless
claims, 23.8 Sep Phil Fed biz activity index. Mild profit-tkg on flatteners. 
- FX-tied black box buying in Tsys as US$ receded vs yen as Pres. Trump cited
more N.Korea sanctions, seems gathering more countries' support. FX-tied buys
later reversed as US$ gained. Pre-auction shorts into TIPs auction.
- Midmorning 10Y futures sales: 10K sold about 10:04am ET, 3,500 Sep 10Y Ultra
sold 10:11am ET. 
- TIPS 10Y reopening tailed to 0.450%; but strong 70.4% indirect, mild 2.32%
directs, moderate 27.3% dealers; R/O profit. 
- TSY 3PM ET: 2Y 1.443%, 3Y 1.596%, 5Y 1.888%, 7Y 2.116%, 10Y 2.278%, 30Y 2.809%
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Steady to mixed by the bell, curve flatter w/long end
trading firmer but off early highs. Current futures levels: 
* Dec Ultra bonds up 18/32 at 166-23 (166-05L/167-12H) 
* Dec 30-yr Bond futures up 9/32 at 154-01 (153-21L/154-17H) 
* Dec 10-yr futures up 1.5/32 at 125-21.5 (125-19L/125-29H) 
* Dec 5-yr futures steady at 117-20.75 (117-19.75L/117-24.5H) 
* Dec 2-yr futures down .25/32 at 107-28.25 (107-28L/107-29.25H)
US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Reversing early gains, mkt trading mildly lower after
the bell, long end of strip outperforming. Rate hike probability for Dec 13 FOMC
up to 71.6%. Current White pack (Dec'17-Sep'18): 
* Dec'17 -0.010 at 98.495 
* Mar'18 -0.010 at 98.400 
* Jun'18 -0.010 at 98.315 
* Sep'18 -0.000 at 98.245 
* Red pack (Dec'18-Sep'19) -0.010-0.015 
* Green pack (Dec'19-Sep'20) -0.010 
* Blue pack (Dec'20-Sep'21) -0.005 
* Gold pack (Dec'21-Sep'22) steady
US SWAPS: Spds running wider, belly lagging wings with the short end reversing
early narrows, joining long end late. Flow two-way in the short end on net,
modest deal-tied flow in the mix. Accts have been sporadically fading the
flattening in Tsy curve, scaling into the curve trade w/better front end
receiving since the FOMC annc. Swap desks expect corporate issuance to start
picking up as well, typically a narrowing factor for spds but overnight repo
specials in 2s-10s has buffered compression for several sessions. Fast$, props
and insurance portfolios accts starting to get active. OTC vol lower across the
surface, reversing early gains. Latest spread levels: 
* 2Y +0.88/27.19 
* 5Y +0.25/8.50 
* 10Y +0.19/-3.19 
* 30Y +0.88/-31.38
OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
- Sep 22 SF Fed Williams: SNB Rsrch Conf Zurich, Switzerland Q/A 0600ET
- Sep 22 KC Fed George: Fed Oil Supply/Demnd Conf Okl.Cty Q/A 0930ET
- Sep 22 Sep Markit Mfg Index (flash) (52.8, --) 0945ET
- Sep 22 Sep Markit Services Index (flash) (56.0, --) 0945ET
- Sep 22 Sep Atlanta Fed inflation (1.9%, --) 1000ET
- Sep 22 Q3 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (2.60%, --) 1100ET
- Sep 22 Q3 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+1.3%, --) 1115ET
- Sep 22 Dall Fed Kaplan: Fed Oil Supply/Dmnd Conf Okl.City Q/A 1330ET
- Sep 22 Sep Treasury Allotments (p) 1500ET
Eurodollar/Treasury option summary
Eurodollar options, Sep options expire
0707-0731ET, more on screen
-20k EDZ 85p, 2.0 vs. 98.50/0.50%
0815ET, more in pit/on screen
-10k EDZ 83/86c spds, 12.5 vs. 98.51/0.74%
10k E2Z 77/82 R/R, 0.0+c vs. 97.995/0.36%
-40k EDZ 83/86c spds, 12.5, also Blocked
-25k EDV 85p, 2.0, also Blocked
+25k EDU 76/EDZ'18 73p strip, 2.0
20k EDZ 86c, 1.5-1.0
-20k EDZ 82/85p spds, 4.75 vs.
+20k EDZ 85/87c spds, 4.75 vs. 98.50/0.95%
-15k EDX/EDZ 85/86c spd spds, 0.75
-10k EDV 85p, 2.0 vs. 98.50/0.50%
9k EDZ 86/87c spds, 1.25
+5k EDX 86c, 0.5
+5k EDZ 85p, 5.0 vs. 98.51/0.10%
5k EDH 82/83 2x1p spds, 1.5
2.5k EDM 81/82 3x2p spds
13k EOH 80/82 1x2c spds
12k EOZ 81/82p spds, 6.5
-10k EOZ 81p vs. 5k E3Z 77p, 4.5cr
10k EOZ 78/81p spds vs.
E2Z 77/80p spds
8.6k EOZ 83/85/86c flys
8k EOF 78/81 2x1p spds
6k EOZ 80/81p spds, 4.0
3.25k EOH 77/78/80p trees
2k EOF 77/78/80/81p condors, 3.5
2k EOZ 85/86c spds, 0.5
2k EOX 81p vs. E3X 77p, 1.5
-2k EOX 81 w/E2X 80 straddle strip, 31.0
+40k E2Z 87c, 0.50
5k E2Z 86/87p strip, 1.5
+4k E2X 82c, 1.5 vs. 97.97/0.10%
3.25k E2Z 85/86c spds
Tsy options, October expires Friday
+/-2.3k TYV 125+ combo, closer
1.5k TYX 125+ straddles, 110
1k TYX 126c, 29 vs. 125-23.5
+14k FVX 119+c, 1.5
-5k FVX 117/118.2 R/R, .5c ovr
3.3k USX 150/158 strangles, 29-30 vs.
USZ 147/161 strangles, 26 
--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6432; email: