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US TSYS: Modest Consolidation Ahead October CPI Data

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasury futures are looking mixed at the moment, see-sawing off overnight lows as markets await this morning's October CPI data at 0830ET (as well as Real Avg Hourly/Weekly Earnings). Curves are scaling back from Tuesday's steepening (2s10s -1.990 at 6.329; 5s30s -.781 at 24.420).
  • Dec'24 10Y futures see modest bid at the moment, TYZ4 +2.5 at 109-16 vs. 109-09 low - near initial technical support of 109-07 (Nov 6 low and bear trigger), average volumes (TYZ4 >320k), 10Y yield -.0157 at 4.4118%.
  • Analyst forecasts for October's CPI report show a central expectation that sequential inflation will come in relatively steady compared with September. The MNI consensus for core CPI is 0.30% M/M (median) / 0.29% (mean) unrounded, vs 0.31% prior, while headline is seen at 0.20% M/M (median) / 0.21% (mean), vs 0.18% in September. These are in line with BBG consensus medians, and as suggested by the means, there is a slight downside bias to core.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers include: MN Fed Kashkari on Bbg TV at 0830ET, NY Fed Williams welcome remarks teacher academy at 0930ET, Dallas Fed Logan gives open remarks energy conf (text, no Q&A) at 0945ET, StL Fed Musalem on economy/mon-pol (text, Q&A) at 1300ET while KC Fed Schmid keynote remarks energy conf (text) at 1330ET.
  • Data wraps up with Monthly Budget Statement at 1400ET.
  • Cross market roundup: crude making modest gains (WTI +0.26 at 68.38, Gold up 11.09 at 2,609.48, USD mildly higher.
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  • Treasury futures are looking mixed at the moment, see-sawing off overnight lows as markets await this morning's October CPI data at 0830ET (as well as Real Avg Hourly/Weekly Earnings). Curves are scaling back from Tuesday's steepening (2s10s -1.990 at 6.329; 5s30s -.781 at 24.420).
  • Dec'24 10Y futures see modest bid at the moment, TYZ4 +2.5 at 109-16 vs. 109-09 low - near initial technical support of 109-07 (Nov 6 low and bear trigger), average volumes (TYZ4 >320k), 10Y yield -.0157 at 4.4118%.
  • Analyst forecasts for October's CPI report show a central expectation that sequential inflation will come in relatively steady compared with September. The MNI consensus for core CPI is 0.30% M/M (median) / 0.29% (mean) unrounded, vs 0.31% prior, while headline is seen at 0.20% M/M (median) / 0.21% (mean), vs 0.18% in September. These are in line with BBG consensus medians, and as suggested by the means, there is a slight downside bias to core.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers include: MN Fed Kashkari on Bbg TV at 0830ET, NY Fed Williams welcome remarks teacher academy at 0930ET, Dallas Fed Logan gives open remarks energy conf (text, no Q&A) at 0945ET, StL Fed Musalem on economy/mon-pol (text, Q&A) at 1300ET while KC Fed Schmid keynote remarks energy conf (text) at 1330ET.
  • Data wraps up with Monthly Budget Statement at 1400ET.
  • Cross market roundup: crude making modest gains (WTI +0.26 at 68.38, Gold up 11.09 at 2,609.48, USD mildly higher.