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US TSYS: Modest Twist Flattening Ahead Of Retail Sales As A Final FOMC Steer

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries are twist flatter on the day with the front end seeing some recent selling pressure despite a continuation of a large cut being priced for tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
  • Cash yields are 1.5bp higher (2s and 3s) to 0.5bp lower (20s and 30s), with the long end outperforming despite upcoming supply for the 20Y after the 30Y tailed last week.
  • 2s10s at 5.2bps (-1.5bps) is off yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 10.4bps.
  • TYZ4 is back little changed at 115-17 (- 01) off an earlier high of 115-21 following a short-lived rally in EGBs, amidst low volumes of 225k ahead of retail sales.
  • Resistance is seen at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high) and 115-31 (1.618 proj of the Aug 8-21-Sep 3 swing), whilst support is seen at 114-31+ (Sep 12 low).
  • Data: Retail sales Aug (0830ET), NY Fed Services Sep (0830ET), IP/Cap Util Aug (0915ET), Business inventories Jul (1000ET), NAHB housing market index Sep (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries are twist flatter on the day with the front end seeing some recent selling pressure despite a continuation of a large cut being priced for tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
  • Cash yields are 1.5bp higher (2s and 3s) to 0.5bp lower (20s and 30s), with the long end outperforming despite upcoming supply for the 20Y after the 30Y tailed last week.
  • 2s10s at 5.2bps (-1.5bps) is off yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 10.4bps.
  • TYZ4 is back little changed at 115-17 (- 01) off an earlier high of 115-21 following a short-lived rally in EGBs, amidst low volumes of 225k ahead of retail sales.
  • Resistance is seen at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high) and 115-31 (1.618 proj of the Aug 8-21-Sep 3 swing), whilst support is seen at 114-31+ (Sep 12 low).
  • Data: Retail sales Aug (0830ET), NY Fed Services Sep (0830ET), IP/Cap Util Aug (0915ET), Business inventories Jul (1000ET), NAHB housing market index Sep (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)