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US TSYS: Modestly Bear Steeper Ahead Of ISM Services And Powell-Led Fed Comms

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries are bull steeper ahead of a busy session that includes ADP employment, ISM services for data, Fedspeak from Powell and multiple ’24 and ’25 voters plus the Fed’s Beige Book with its increased importance as FOMC members lean more heavily on anecdotal evidence amidst data noise.
  • Cash yields are 0.5-2.5bp higher today, with the front end lagging increases. 10Y yields have lifted to ~4.25% (high 4.2536) although that’s only clawed back declines seen since Thanksgiving - they touched a low of 4.1646% yesterday on South Korea martial law proceedings.
  • 2s10s has steepened to 6.6bps (+1.9bp), highs in the post-Bessent pick period but still relatively low by the previous month’s standards.  
  • TYH5 has seen session lows at 110-24 (-07) on a second overnight session with low cumulative volumes (nearing 270k).
  • Most desks will be looking at the 4.30% 10Y yield which would equate to 110-14+ whilst firmer support is seen at 110-01 (Nov 25 low). To the upside, resistance is seen at 111-11 (Dec 3 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage apps Nov 29 (0700ET), ADP employment Nov (0815ET), S&P Global US Serv/Comp PMI final (0945ET), ISM services Nov (1000ET), Factory orders Oct (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Musalem speaks on economy/mon pol (0845ET, text + Q&A), Barkin in CNBC interview (0900ET), Powell in moderated discussion (1340ET, just Q&A), Fed Beige Book (1400ET), Daly interview to PBS News Hour (1800ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries are bull steeper ahead of a busy session that includes ADP employment, ISM services for data, Fedspeak from Powell and multiple ’24 and ’25 voters plus the Fed’s Beige Book with its increased importance as FOMC members lean more heavily on anecdotal evidence amidst data noise.
  • Cash yields are 0.5-2.5bp higher today, with the front end lagging increases. 10Y yields have lifted to ~4.25% (high 4.2536) although that’s only clawed back declines seen since Thanksgiving - they touched a low of 4.1646% yesterday on South Korea martial law proceedings.
  • 2s10s has steepened to 6.6bps (+1.9bp), highs in the post-Bessent pick period but still relatively low by the previous month’s standards.  
  • TYH5 has seen session lows at 110-24 (-07) on a second overnight session with low cumulative volumes (nearing 270k).
  • Most desks will be looking at the 4.30% 10Y yield which would equate to 110-14+ whilst firmer support is seen at 110-01 (Nov 25 low). To the upside, resistance is seen at 111-11 (Dec 3 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage apps Nov 29 (0700ET), ADP employment Nov (0815ET), S&P Global US Serv/Comp PMI final (0945ET), ISM services Nov (1000ET), Factory orders Oct (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Musalem speaks on economy/mon pol (0845ET, text + Q&A), Barkin in CNBC interview (0900ET), Powell in moderated discussion (1340ET, just Q&A), Fed Beige Book (1400ET), Daly interview to PBS News Hour (1800ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)