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US TSYS: Modestly Cheaper And Steeper Pre Labor Data & Earnings

US TSYS
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  • Treasuries have lifted off lows but still consolidate yesterday’s sell-off. The 10Y yield earlier exceeded 4.30% for the first time since July with 4.312% but is currently back at 4.294%.
  • Next week’s US presidential election is eyed and a Reuters report on fresh China fiscal stimulus could be supporting the net selling pressure.
  • Cash yields are 0.2-1.5bp higher on the day which sees 2s10s lift further to 15.9bps (+1.2bp) although it remains within recent ranges.
  • TYZ4 sits at 110-19 (- 03+) off a latest low of 110-15+ that further builds bearish momentum, amidst reasonable cumulative volumes of 325k. It came close to support at 110-13 (61.8% retrace of Apr – Sep bull cycle, cont.). Beyond that, 4.35% in cash yields equates to 110.08 after which lies the round 110-00.
  • Today sees focus on labor data ahead of Friday’s payrolls report along with the heaviest reporting day of busy week for earnings, including Alphabet and other large names including Visa (MNI earnings calendar).
  • Data: Adv goods trade bal Sep (0830ET), Wholesale/retail inventories Sep P/Sep (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Aug (0900ET), JOLTS report Sep (1000ET), Conf Board consumer survey Oct (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Oct (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN & $44B 7Y Note auctions (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W Bill, $80B 42D CMB auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have lifted off lows but still consolidate yesterday’s sell-off. The 10Y yield earlier exceeded 4.30% for the first time since July with 4.312% but is currently back at 4.294%.
  • Next week’s US presidential election is eyed and a Reuters report on fresh China fiscal stimulus could be supporting the net selling pressure.
  • Cash yields are 0.2-1.5bp higher on the day which sees 2s10s lift further to 15.9bps (+1.2bp) although it remains within recent ranges.
  • TYZ4 sits at 110-19 (- 03+) off a latest low of 110-15+ that further builds bearish momentum, amidst reasonable cumulative volumes of 325k. It came close to support at 110-13 (61.8% retrace of Apr – Sep bull cycle, cont.). Beyond that, 4.35% in cash yields equates to 110.08 after which lies the round 110-00.
  • Today sees focus on labor data ahead of Friday’s payrolls report along with the heaviest reporting day of busy week for earnings, including Alphabet and other large names including Visa (MNI earnings calendar).
  • Data: Adv goods trade bal Sep (0830ET), Wholesale/retail inventories Sep P/Sep (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Aug (0900ET), JOLTS report Sep (1000ET), Conf Board consumer survey Oct (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Oct (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN & $44B 7Y Note auctions (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W Bill, $80B 42D CMB auctions (1130ET)