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US TSYS: Modestly Lower Ahead Of Notable Risk Events

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries sit lower across the curve amidst some risk-on flows with equity futures gaining, modestly underperforming EGBs and Gilts in the process.
  • It’s ahead of an important session including both retail sales and jobless claims (with initial for a payrolls reference period) plus potential spillover from the ECB decision at 0815ET.
  • Cash yields are 1-2bp lower, with declines led by 20s.
  • 10Y yields at 4.032% hold their reversal after dipping below 4% yesterday.
  • 2s10s at 9bps (+1bp) lifts a little off yesterday’s lows but remains within ranges over the past month.
  • TYZ4 has lifted off lows of 112-11 but at 112-13 (-04) holds a decline away from yesterday's highs of 112-22 that mark initial resistance. Volumes are subdued at 250k with those risk events ahead.
  • A renewed push higher could open resistance at 113-12 (Sep 3 low) but the trend structure remains bearish with support at 111-22 (Oct 10 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0-1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025, implying cumulative cuts of 24bp for Nov, 46bp for Dec and 65bp for Jan from an effective rate of 4.83%.
  • Data: Retail sales Sep (0830ET), Jobless claims (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Oct (0830ET), IP/cap util Sep (0915ET), Business inventories Aug (100ET), NAHB index Oct (1000ET), TIC flows Aug (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee opening remarks at careers event (1100ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $95bn 4-w, $90bn 8-w bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries sit lower across the curve amidst some risk-on flows with equity futures gaining, modestly underperforming EGBs and Gilts in the process.
  • It’s ahead of an important session including both retail sales and jobless claims (with initial for a payrolls reference period) plus potential spillover from the ECB decision at 0815ET.
  • Cash yields are 1-2bp lower, with declines led by 20s.
  • 10Y yields at 4.032% hold their reversal after dipping below 4% yesterday.
  • 2s10s at 9bps (+1bp) lifts a little off yesterday’s lows but remains within ranges over the past month.
  • TYZ4 has lifted off lows of 112-11 but at 112-13 (-04) holds a decline away from yesterday's highs of 112-22 that mark initial resistance. Volumes are subdued at 250k with those risk events ahead.
  • A renewed push higher could open resistance at 113-12 (Sep 3 low) but the trend structure remains bearish with support at 111-22 (Oct 10 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0-1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025, implying cumulative cuts of 24bp for Nov, 46bp for Dec and 65bp for Jan from an effective rate of 4.83%.
  • Data: Retail sales Sep (0830ET), Jobless claims (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Oct (0830ET), IP/cap util Sep (0915ET), Business inventories Aug (100ET), NAHB index Oct (1000ET), TIC flows Aug (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee opening remarks at careers event (1100ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $95bn 4-w, $90bn 8-w bills (1130ET)