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US TSYS: No Belated Post-Payrolls Global Risk-Off This Month

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have mostly sold off overnight, with equity futures steadily gaining for no sign of global risk-off spillover as was the case after last month’s payrolls report.
  • Cash yields are 3.3-4.3bp higher, with increase slightly led by the front-end as they reverse a rally seen into Friday’s close.
  • 2s10s at 5.8bps (-0.8bp) broadly holds Friday’s push more firmly into positive territory for highs since mid-2022. The mixed payrolls report and a lack of Fedspeak explicitly calling for a 50bp cut this month trimmed Sept cut odds but still sees a deeper cutting cycle.
  • TYZ4 is at 114-22+ (-10) having lifted off a low of 114-20, firmly within Friday’s range on solid cumulative volumes of 360k.
  • The contract is seen to have a bullish structure with resistance at 115-13 (Sep 6 high) whilst support is at 113-31+ (20-day EMA).
  • Today sees a light docket with macro attention on CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) plus potential for greater political risk focus with Tuesday’s Harris-Trump debate.  
  • Data: Wholesale inventories/sales Jul F/Jul (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Aug (1100ET), Consumer credit Jul (1500ET)
  • Fedspeak: None with FOMC now in media blackout
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have mostly sold off overnight, with equity futures steadily gaining for no sign of global risk-off spillover as was the case after last month’s payrolls report.
  • Cash yields are 3.3-4.3bp higher, with increase slightly led by the front-end as they reverse a rally seen into Friday’s close.
  • 2s10s at 5.8bps (-0.8bp) broadly holds Friday’s push more firmly into positive territory for highs since mid-2022. The mixed payrolls report and a lack of Fedspeak explicitly calling for a 50bp cut this month trimmed Sept cut odds but still sees a deeper cutting cycle.
  • TYZ4 is at 114-22+ (-10) having lifted off a low of 114-20, firmly within Friday’s range on solid cumulative volumes of 360k.
  • The contract is seen to have a bullish structure with resistance at 115-13 (Sep 6 high) whilst support is at 113-31+ (20-day EMA).
  • Today sees a light docket with macro attention on CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) plus potential for greater political risk focus with Tuesday’s Harris-Trump debate.  
  • Data: Wholesale inventories/sales Jul F/Jul (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Aug (1100ET), Consumer credit Jul (1500ET)
  • Fedspeak: None with FOMC now in media blackout
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)