September 09, 2024 11:04 GMT
US TSYS: No Belated Post-Payrolls Global Risk-Off This Month
US TSYS
- Treasuries have mostly sold off overnight, with equity futures steadily gaining for no sign of global risk-off spillover as was the case after last month’s payrolls report.
- Cash yields are 3.3-4.3bp higher, with increase slightly led by the front-end as they reverse a rally seen into Friday’s close.
- 2s10s at 5.8bps (-0.8bp) broadly holds Friday’s push more firmly into positive territory for highs since mid-2022. The mixed payrolls report and a lack of Fedspeak explicitly calling for a 50bp cut this month trimmed Sept cut odds but still sees a deeper cutting cycle.
- TYZ4 is at 114-22+ (-10) having lifted off a low of 114-20, firmly within Friday’s range on solid cumulative volumes of 360k.
- The contract is seen to have a bullish structure with resistance at 115-13 (Sep 6 high) whilst support is at 113-31+ (20-day EMA).
- Today sees a light docket with macro attention on CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) plus potential for greater political risk focus with Tuesday’s Harris-Trump debate.
- Data: Wholesale inventories/sales Jul F/Jul (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Aug (1100ET), Consumer credit Jul (1500ET)
- Fedspeak: None with FOMC now in media blackout
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
197 words