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JGB TECHS

(U1) Tilted Higher

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U1) Uptrend Weakening

US TSYS SUMMARY

Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme

AUDUSD TECHS

Fresh 2021 Lows

     
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys drifting around lower half of range by the bell, light
volume (TYU<710k). Little new ground covered by Fed Chair in MonPol testimony,
was brief period of selling down to (mild) session lows then steady (but mild)
buying around time Powell mentioned protectionist trade policies not good. Back
to summer trade (not much expected from House FSC testimony tomorrow) Bullard
Friday ahead Saturday blackout.
- US$ index firmer: DXY +0.434 to 94.945; US$/Yen higher +.54 to 112.83
(112.93H/112.23L); equities strong (emini +15.5, 2812.0); gold hammered (XAU
-12.74, 1228.26); West Texas crude steady after Mon's sell-off (WTI +0.00,
68.05).
- Participants stayed close to the sidelines, traders disappointed, were keen to
hear more on curve flattening and trade war implications; too many unknowns for
them to game out. Two-way flow on range, some deal-tied hedging across curve
($4.6B MUFG 6-parter covering 3Y-20Y launched late); two-way prop and
option-tied hedging. Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-25 (2.611%), 5Y 99-11.75 (2.761%), 10Y
100-03.5 (2.860%), 30Y 103-02.5 (2.968%)
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading slightly lower near the bottom of the range, light
volume (TYU 706k), Curves flatter, updates:
* 2s10s -1.484, 24.469 (23.919L/26.824H);
* 2s30s -0.968, 35.325 (34.548L/37.202H);
* 5s30s -0.160, 20.614 (20.116L/21.404H);
Current futures levels:
* Sep Ultra bonds down 02/32 at 159-30 (159-24L/160-14H)
* Sep 30-yr Bond futures down 02/32 at 145-02 (144-28L/145-12H)
* Sep 10-yr futures down 1.5/32 at 120-04 (120-01L/120-08H)
* Sep 5-yr futures down 1.5/32 at 113-14.75 (113-14.25L/113-17.5H)
* Sep 2-yr futures down 0.75/32 at 105-24.5 (105-24.5L/105-25.75H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading steady to slightly lower throughout the
strip, low volume on a tight range. Current White pack (Sep'18-Jun'19):
* Sep'18 0.000 at 97.540
* Dec'18 -0.010 at 97.325
* Jun'19 -0.015 at 97.190
* Jun'19 -0.015 at 97.095
* Red pack (Sep'19-Jun'20) -0.010
* Green pack (Sep'20-Jun'21) -0.010
* Blue pack (Sep'21-Jun'21) -0.005
* Gold pack (Sep'22-Jun'22) -0.010-0.005
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N +0.0056 to 1.9182% (+0.0006/wk)
* 1 Month +0.0032 to 2.0817% (+0.0085/wk)
* 3 Month +0.0093 to 2.3419% (+0.0061/wk)
* 6 Month +0.0046 to 2.5231% (+0.0023/wk)
* 1 Year +0.0080 to 2.7957% (+0.0089/wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 1.95% vs. 1.90% prior, $767B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 1.92% vs. 1.87% prior, $398B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 1.92% vs. 1.87% prior, $384B
US SWAPS: Spds turn steady/mixed by the bell, paring much of early narrowing,
decent swappable issuance keeping hedging active across the curve. Earlier flow
included recent payer in 2s at 2.828%, 2s8s9s and 8s9s10s flys, both receiving
the belly. Latest spd levels:
* 2Y  -0.38/22.19
* 5Y  +0.00/13.75
* 10Y +0.25/6.50
* 30Y +0.25/-4.25
PIPELINE: $4.6B 6-part MUFG launched
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
07/17 $4.6B #MUFG 6-part:
* $750M 3Y fix +85, $750M 3Y FRN L+65,
* $1B 5Y fix +100, $800M 5Y FRN L+86
* $800M 10Y tap 3.961 +120, $500M 20Y fix +132
07/17 $Benchmark Int Bank for Reconstruction & Development (IBRD), 3Y fix MS -3a
OUTLOOK: Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate): 
- Jul 18 13-Jul MBA Mortgage Applications (2.5%, --) 0700ET
- Jul 18 Jun housing starts (1.35m, 1.32m) 0830ET
- Jul 18 Jun building permits (1.301m, 1.335m) 0830ET
- Jul 18 13-Jul crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-12.63m bbl, --) 1030ET
- Jul 18 1400 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC 1400ET
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/Screen:
* -10,000 Short Mar 65 puts vs Green Mar 62/65 2x1 put sprd at 3.5, note selling
the Short Mar 65 puts
* +5,000 Long Green Dec 90/92 call sprd at 1
* 7,500 Front Aug/Short Sep 76 calls at 0
* 5,000 Aug 75/76 Strangle at 1
* 14,000 Jun 70/72 put spds on screen
* 2,000 Dec 71/72/73 2x3x1 put flys, 1.25 net
* 5,000 Short Aug 70 puts at 3 vs 9705/0.36%
* 5,000 Dec 73/75 call sprd at 3.25 vs 9732.5/0.20%
* -5,000 Short Sep 68/71 Strangle at 7.5
* 20,000 Short Jun/Blue Jun 73 calls at 1.5
* 5,000 Long Green Sep 60/70 2x1 put sprd at 26.5 vs 9701.5/0.30%
* +4,000 Green Sep 70/71 Strangle at 15.5
* +10,000 Long Green Sep 60 puts at 4 vs 9700/0.10%
* +5,000 Sep 77 calls at 0.5
UPDATE: +31,000 Green Aug 68/70/71 put fly at 4.5 vs 9697/0.05
UPDATE: 6,500 Oct 75 calls at 1.5 vs 9733.5/0.16%
* +10,000 Long Green Sep 58/61 5x2 put sprd at 0.5
* 3,500 Oct 75 calls at 1.5 vs 9733.5/0.16%
* -3,000 Short Dec 70 Straddle at 31.5
* +5,000 Green Dec 66/68 put strip at 15 vs 9704/0.15%
UPDATE: +22,000 Green Aug 68/70/71 put fly at 4.5 vs 9697/0.05
Block, 08:24:30ET,
* +40,000 Red Sep 73/77/81 call tree at 4
Tsy options, Pit/screen:
* -2,000 TYU 119.5/121 strangles, 31/64
* 1,000 TUU 105.7 straddles, 14.5/64
* -1,000 TYQ 120.25 straddles earlier at 32/64
* total -12,500 (pit/screen) TYU 119 puts, 10/64
* +8,500 FVU 112.75/113.25 put spds, 9/64
* 2,300 TYQ 120.25 straddles, 33/64
* 2,000 TYU 123.5 calls, 2/64vs. 120-10.5
* small USQ 147/USU 145 call spds, 1-17/64
* -1,200 FVU 112.25/114.25 call over risk reversals, 4/64 vs. 113-16.7
* Update, total +3,500 FVV 114.75 calls, 5/64 vs. 113-17.7/0.05%
* +2,500 FVV 114.75 calls, 5/64 vs. 113-17.7/0.05%
* -2,000 wk3 120/120.25 strangles, 14/64
* over 1,000 TYU 118/119 2x1 put spds, 3/64
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]