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US TSYS: Off Flash PMI Lows, Safe Haven Bid As US To Send Troops to Middle East

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries still look to finish weaker, but well off Monday morning lows as late London unwinds segued to safe haven buying on Middle East headlines: Israel Will Launch "Large Scale" Attack Across Rural Lebanon - Ynet, followed by Newswires reporting that the US will send additional troops to the Middle East amid an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to a Pentagon statement.
  • Treasuries gapped lower/extended lows after this morning's Flash PMIs showed renewed price pressures but softer employment. Manufacturing: 47.0 (cons 48.6) in Sept prelim after 47.9 in Aug; Services: 55.4 (cons 55.2) after 55.7; Composite: 54.4 (cons 54.3) after 54.6.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently -3.5 at 114-23.5 vs. 114-11.5 low -- breaching 114-23 support (20-day EMA) briefly. Curves bear steepened, 2s10s +1.494 at 16.105, 5s30s +0.190 at 58.393.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 rebound, latest vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-36.5bp), Dec'24 -75.9bp (-72.8bp), Jan'25 -110.0bp (-107.0bp).
  • Focus turns to House Price index data tomorrow including Consumer Confidence and regional Fed mfg data. US Tsy to auction $69B 2Y notes as well as $60B 42D CMB bills.
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  • Treasuries still look to finish weaker, but well off Monday morning lows as late London unwinds segued to safe haven buying on Middle East headlines: Israel Will Launch "Large Scale" Attack Across Rural Lebanon - Ynet, followed by Newswires reporting that the US will send additional troops to the Middle East amid an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to a Pentagon statement.
  • Treasuries gapped lower/extended lows after this morning's Flash PMIs showed renewed price pressures but softer employment. Manufacturing: 47.0 (cons 48.6) in Sept prelim after 47.9 in Aug; Services: 55.4 (cons 55.2) after 55.7; Composite: 54.4 (cons 54.3) after 54.6.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently -3.5 at 114-23.5 vs. 114-11.5 low -- breaching 114-23 support (20-day EMA) briefly. Curves bear steepened, 2s10s +1.494 at 16.105, 5s30s +0.190 at 58.393.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 rebound, latest vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-36.5bp), Dec'24 -75.9bp (-72.8bp), Jan'25 -110.0bp (-107.0bp).
  • Focus turns to House Price index data tomorrow including Consumer Confidence and regional Fed mfg data. US Tsy to auction $69B 2Y notes as well as $60B 42D CMB bills.