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US TSYS: Pre-ISM Mfg Gains Pared, JOLTS To Offer Next US Macro Focus

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a modest bid in latest trading although remain comfortably off from pre-data highs.
  • The lack of reversal of prior equity or energy/industrial metals weakness over the period of the net paring of gains suggests the earlier rally wasn’t fully driven by fundamentals.
  • That said, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has cooled from 2.5% to 2.0% on the back of today’s data.
  • TYZ4 is currently at 114-00+ (+14+) vs the high of 114-07+ which marked a step closer to resistance at 114-19+ (Aug 21 high).
  • Cash yields are 4-6.5bps lower on the day, led by 20s.
  • 2s10s at -2.5bps remains within the day’s range, close to Friday’s latest high of +0.5bp and the +2bp seen briefly in global risk-off spillover the Monday after last month’s payrolls.
  • Fed Funds futures price 34bp of cuts for the Sept FOMC and a cumulative 102bp over the three meetings left this year, the latter vs 104bp at one point earlier and 106bp following Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole address. 
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