US TSYS: Rates Weaker/Off Lows W/Equities Paring Gains Late

US TSY SUMMARY: Early hopes for Tue's trade volumes were dashed late: TYM was

appr 340k around the NY open, only climbed over 850k after the bell even as Tsy

futures recede from second half highs. Equities reversed course late, SPs +33.0

at 2858.0 after nearly trading 2890.0 ahead midday.

- After a brief dip after session's only NY Fed buy op (Tsy 0-2.5Y, $13.000

accepted, $43.560B submitted), futures are back to quietly extending session

highs last couple minutes as equity bid starts to recede (ESM0 +57.0).

- Multiple Fed speakers that struck a cautionary stance ("CLARIDA: WE'RE IN A

RECESSION", ATLANTA FED BOSTIC: V-SHAPE RECOVERY WILL BE DIFFICULT, STL FED

BULLARD: MARKETS OPTIMISTIC FED WILL KEEP INFLATION ON TRACK) did little to

influence market levels on day.

- Another $18.45B corporate debt issuance generated two-way hedging flow.

- Two-way option flow included decent ratio put spds (+50k EDM 93/95 2x1 put

spds cab).

- The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.1862%, 5-Yr is up 0.8bps at 0.3718%, 10-Yr is

up 2.7bps at 0.6603%, and 30-Yr is up 5.4bps at 1.3308%.

TECHNICALS:

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M0) Underlying Bullish Theme Remains Intact     

*RES 4: 141-26   0.764 projection of Feb 2 - Mar 9 rally from Mar 19 low 

*RES 3: 140-24   High Mar 9 and key contract high

*RES 2: 140-00   Round number resistance

*RES 1: 139-22   High Apr 22

*PRICE: 138-29 @ 16:13 BST, May 5

*SUP 1: 138-17   Low Apr 17 and Low Apr 28 

*SUP 2: 137-16   Low Apr 7 and key near-term support 

*SUP 3: 136-29+ Low Mar 24

*SUP 4: 136-22+  50-day EMA

10yr futures held their ground Tuesday after inching lower in US hours Monday.

Overall though, the technical picture continues to highlight a bullish theme.

The recovery from 137-16 on Apr 7 is a positive development. The move higher

marked a bounce off support highlighted by the 20-day EMA and price for the most

part continues to hold above the average. The focus is on 140-00 and the

contract high of 140-24 from Mar 9. Key S/T support is at 137-16, Apr 7 low.

Initial support is at 138-17.

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M0) New Normal

*RES 3: 100.000 - Handle Psychological Resistance

*RES 3: 99.951 - 123.6% Fib Projection

*RES 1: 99.780 - High Apr 01

*PRICE: 99.755 @ 16:18 BST May 5

*SUP 1: 99.440 - Low Mar 16

*SUP 2: 99.300 - Recent low (cont)

*SUP 3: 99.225 - Low Feb 6 and 13 (cont)

Aussie bond markets hold close to alltime highs following the RBA's venture into

bond markets which is clearly still propping up prices. The chart has now begun

to look overbought and a period of consolidation is now the most likely outcome.

A break of the Mar 16 low would trigger deeper short-term losses and open the

99.300 level, a recent low of the continuation chart.

AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M0) Needs to Top 99.20

*RES 3: 99.5598 - 1.236 projection of the Jan 2 -Feb 4 rally from Feb 13 low 

*RES 2: 99.4850 - High Mar 10 and bull trigger 

*RES 1: 99.3600 - High Apr 01

*PRICE: 99.1450 @ 16:18 BST, May 5

*SUP 1: 98.6300 - Low Mar 18

*SUP 2: 98.5700 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 3: 98.1828 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

After a considerable consolidation phase, Aussie 10yr futures continued to edge

higher at the beginning of the week, but much of this effect faded into the

Tuesday close. To the downside, a slip through 99.02 would mark down the

outlook, opening further losses down to the late March lows of 98.63, but that

seems a way away at present. Any recovery eyes initially a break of resistance

at 99.3600, Mar 12 high. A break above here opens the 99.4850 bull trigger, Mar

10 high.

JGB TECHS: (M0): Returns South

*RES 3: 156.02 - High Mar 10 and key resistance 

*RES 2: 154.56 - High Mar 13

*RES 1: 153.50 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: 152.49 @ 16:25 BST, May 5

*SUP 1: 152.44 - 50% April Rally

*SUP 2: 150.61 - Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 150.00 - Psychological round number 

All residual strength faded well ahead of the Friday close, returning JGB

futures to the middle of the recent range. This opens a return back toward the

152.44 mark for initial support before the 151.52 low, which opens 150.61 next

as well as the psychological 150.00 handle further out. The first upside target

rests at 153.50 initially ahead of 154.56.

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Balance of wk's Tsy bill auction schedule:

DATE     TIME   AMOUNT   SECURITY    (CUSIP)/ANNC

-------------------------------------------------

06 May  1130ET   $35B   154D Bill     9127964H9

07 May  1130ET   $80B    4W Bill      9127962U2

07 May  1130ET   $70B    8W Bill      9127963C1

07 May  1300ET   $30B   105D Bill     9127963Q0

TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Weaker by the bell -- near late session highs on modest

volume (TYM<870k), rates ignoring late session reversal in equities off highs.

Yld curves mostly steeper. Update: 

* 3M10Y  -0.283, 52.403 (L: 50.608 / H: 55.289)

* 2Y10Y  +1.234, 45.988 (L: 44.525 / H: 48.563)

* 2Y30Y  +3.852, 112.896 (L: 109.006 / H: 115.537)

* 5Y30Y  +4.177, 95.281 (L: 91.113 / H: 97.25); Current futures levels:

* Jun 2-Yr futures down 0.5/32 at 110-6.375 (L: 110-05.875 / H: 110-07)

* Jun 5-Yr futures down 0.75/32 at 125-13 (L: 125-08.25 / H: 125-14)

* Jun 10-Yr futures down 1.5/32 at 138-29.5 (L: 138-20 / H: 138-31.5)

* Jun 30-Yr futures down 6/32 at 180-17 (L: 179-21 / H: 180-27)

* Jun Ultra futures down 1-2/32 at 222-28 (L: 221-27 / H: 224-19)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Whites-Reds steady/marginally mixed after the bell,

Greens-Golds weaker all session are off first half lows. Update: 

* Jun 20 steady at 99.645

* Sep 20 -0.010 at 99.695

* Dec 20 -0.005 at 99.675

* Mar 21 -0.005 at 99.735

* Red Pack (Jun 21-Mar 22) -0.005 to steady

* Green Pack (Jun 22-Mar 23) -0.01 to -0.01

* Blue Pack (Jun 23-Mar 24) -0.015 to -0.015

* Gold Pack (Jun 24-Mar 25) -0.02 to -0.015

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N +0.0005 at 0.0578% (-0.0006/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0155 to 0.2472% (-0.0561/wk)

* 3 Month -0.0269 to 0.4740% (-0.0669/wk)

* 6 Month -0.0044 to 0.7001% (-0.0129/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0026 to 0.8312% (-0.0042/wk)

US SWAPS: Spds running steady/mixed after the bell, short end lead narrowing in

the wings amid moderate deal-tied flow, prop rate receiving in 2s early.

Time(ET)   2Y Swap/Mid   5Y Swap/Mid    10Y Swap/Mid   30Y Swap/Mid

Tue 1545  -0.88/+12.25   +0.62/+4.38    +0.00/-0.50    -0.25/-47.00

1200      -0.12/+13.00   +0.50/+4.25    +0.25/-0.25    +0.00/-46.75

1000      -0.12/+13.00   +0.31/+4.06    +0.06/-0.44    -0.50/-47.25

Tue Open  -0.62/+12.50   +0.25/+4.00    +0.25/-0.25    -0.75/-47.50

Tue 0700  -0.62/+12.50   +0.00/+3.75    -0.25/-0.75    -0.50/-47.25

Mon 1500  +0.06/+13.12   -0.25/+4.25    -0.38/-0.50    -1.44/-46.88

STIR: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR for prior session:

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.05%, volume: $92B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.04%, volume: $211B

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, volume levels reflect prior session):

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 0.05%, $1.184T

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 0.04%, $490B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 0.04%, $479B

FED: Recap NY Fed operational purchase for Tuesday ($13.0B)

* Tsy 0-2.5Y, $13.000 accepted, $43.560B submitted

--

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Wednesday ($6B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 7Y-20Y, appr $4B

* 1100-1120ET: TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, appr $2.0B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Thursday ($8.5B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 20Y-30Y, appr $2.5B

* 1100-1120ET: Tsy 4.5Y-7Y, appr $6B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Friday ($8B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $8B

OUTLOOK: *** US Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

06-May 0700 01-May MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.3%, --)

06-May 0800 StL Fed Pres Bullard, CNBC interview on Fed actions during Covid-19

06-May 0815 Apr ADP private payrolls (-27k, -20.5M)

06-May 0800 StL Fed Pres Bullard on CNBC, Fed actions during Covid-19 crisis.

06-May 1030 01-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

06-May 1130 US Tsy $35B 154D Bill auction (9127964H9)

06-May 1330 Atl Fed Pres Bostic on virus response

PIPELINE: BARCLAYS launched, still waiting for $8B Broadcom 4pt to price

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld; Priced *; Launch #

05/05 $8B #Broadcom $1B 3Y +200, $2.25B 5Y +280, $2.75B 10Y +350, $2B 12Y +365

05/05 $2B *Nextera Energy Cap 10Y +160

05/05 $2B *Sabine Pass 10Y +387.5

05/05 $1.75B #Barclays Bank 2Y +155

05/05 $1.5B *CK Hutchison $750M 10Y +190, $750M 30Y +210

05/05 $500M *Clorox Co 10Y +170a

05/05 $400M *Ryder +5Y +300

05/05 $300M *WR Berkley 30Y +270

05/05 $Benchmark Qatar Ntl Bank 5Y +260a

Rolls over to Wednesday:

05/06 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit 5Y +35a

Chatter: 05/?? HSBC Canada; Loews Corp; Rep of Chile

Eurodollar/Tsy options

Eurodollar options

* Block: +10,000 Red Jun'21 100/100.25 call spds, 2.5 at 1321:52ET

* 4,000 Red Jun21 95/97/100 call flys

* 2,000 Jul/Sep 95/98 call spd spd

* 4,000 Green Dec 90/95 put spds

* appr 3,500 short Dec 86 puts earlier

* 15,500 Jun 92 puts, 0.5, hear buy

* Update, appr 26,000 Jun 93/95 2x1 put spds cab

* appr 10,000 Jun 93/95 2x1 put spds, cab

* 10,000 May 95 puts, cab

* 4,300 Dec 91/93/96 put flys

Tsy options:

* Update, just over 5,300 TYN 139.5 calls from 27- to 29/64 on day

* Update, 10,000 TYM 138/140 put over risk reversal, 3/64 net

* +2,000 TYM 137 puts, 5/64

Overnight trade

* Near 9,000 TYN 136 puts, 11/64 last

* over 7,300 TYN 137.5 puts, 26/64 last

* +2,000 TYQ 134 puts, 9/64

* +1,500 TYN 133/135 puts spds, 4/64 and 1,000 TYN 132.5/135 put spds

* 3,600 USM 178 puts, 44/64 last

* +3,000 FVU 126.5/127.25/128 call flys, 3/64

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]