MNI INTERVIEW2: Trump Stagflationary For Eurozone-ECB's Wunsch

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

MNI: Canada Apr-Aug Budget Deficit Doubles On Spending

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, October 25

MNI BRIEF: China's Next NPC Meeting Scheduled For Nov 4 to 8

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY184.2 Bln via OMO Friday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL OCT INDEX 70.5

MNI: BELGIUM OCT BNB BUSINESS SURVEY -12.8

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Short End Off Lows Amid ECB Rate Cut Hopes

US TSYS
USEquitiesNorth AmericaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Treasuries are running weaker but off midday lows after the bell amid ongoing speculation over forward ECB rate cut speculation. Rates traded weaker overnight after ECB officials saw market pricing of appr six consecutive cuts as overly aggressive.
  • Bonds bounced briefly after Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno suggested a 50bp ECB cut was possible at upcoming meetings.
  • Treasuries rebounded with Euribor after Bank of France Governor Francoise Villeroy said Tuesday that ECB rates should not be restrictive next year if the growth outlook remains sluggish and inflation is sustainably at the bank's target of 2%.
  • "On our terminal rate, it’s obviously too early to tell. However if we are next year sustainably at 2% inflation, and with still a sluggish growth outlook in Europe, there won’t be any reasons for our monetary policy to remain restrictive, and for our rates to be above the neutral rate of interest", he said in New York.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey composite manufacturing index rose to -14 in October, still indicating "slow" activity (per the survey) albeit up from -21 in September and a little stronger than the -14 expected, with shipments, new orders and employment all improving on the month.
  • Current projected cuts recede vs. late Monday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -23.0bp (-22.0bp), Dec'24 -41.4bp (-40.5bp), Jan'25 -58.6bp (-58.1bp).
214 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasuries are running weaker but off midday lows after the bell amid ongoing speculation over forward ECB rate cut speculation. Rates traded weaker overnight after ECB officials saw market pricing of appr six consecutive cuts as overly aggressive.
  • Bonds bounced briefly after Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno suggested a 50bp ECB cut was possible at upcoming meetings.
  • Treasuries rebounded with Euribor after Bank of France Governor Francoise Villeroy said Tuesday that ECB rates should not be restrictive next year if the growth outlook remains sluggish and inflation is sustainably at the bank's target of 2%.
  • "On our terminal rate, it’s obviously too early to tell. However if we are next year sustainably at 2% inflation, and with still a sluggish growth outlook in Europe, there won’t be any reasons for our monetary policy to remain restrictive, and for our rates to be above the neutral rate of interest", he said in New York.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey composite manufacturing index rose to -14 in October, still indicating "slow" activity (per the survey) albeit up from -21 in September and a little stronger than the -14 expected, with shipments, new orders and employment all improving on the month.
  • Current projected cuts recede vs. late Monday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -23.0bp (-22.0bp), Dec'24 -41.4bp (-40.5bp), Jan'25 -58.6bp (-58.1bp).