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US TSYS: /STIR: Modest Hawkish Repricing On Data, Belly Now Leads Sell Off

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America

Hawkish market reaction to the combination of firmer-than-expected retail sales, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and firmer-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Survey headline print.

  • TYZ4 to fresh session lows of 112-02+ before recovering to 112-05+ last, although stays comfortably above lows of the week.
  • First initial support of note is still located some way below prevailing levels, at the Oct 10 low (111-22).
  • Belly/intermediates now lead the weakness after marginal bear steepening pre-data, yields 4.5-5.5bp higher on the day.
  • Fed Funds futures now show 22bp of cuts for November, 42bp of cuts though December, 83.5bp of cuts through March and 116bp of cuts through June.
  • That compares to 23.5bp, 46bp, 88bp and 121bp ahead of the data.
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Hawkish market reaction to the combination of firmer-than-expected retail sales, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and firmer-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Survey headline print.

  • TYZ4 to fresh session lows of 112-02+ before recovering to 112-05+ last, although stays comfortably above lows of the week.
  • First initial support of note is still located some way below prevailing levels, at the Oct 10 low (111-22).
  • Belly/intermediates now lead the weakness after marginal bear steepening pre-data, yields 4.5-5.5bp higher on the day.
  • Fed Funds futures now show 22bp of cuts for November, 42bp of cuts though December, 83.5bp of cuts through March and 116bp of cuts through June.
  • That compares to 23.5bp, 46bp, 88bp and 121bp ahead of the data.