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US TSYS: Surprising Hawkish React to Chair Powell Prepared Comments

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasury futures (and stocks as well) traded weaker as prepared text from Chairman Powell's comments on economy from Dallas aired. Powell Q&A underway with futures bouncing slightly.
  • Curves flattened sharply with 2s-10s leading the sell-off: 2s10s -7.150 at 8.976 vs. 17.491 high this morning.
  • Flattening has in turn sapped projected rate cuts into early 2025 that had moderated slightly from Wednesday highs earlier. Current levels vs. this morning (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -16.4bp (-19.8bp), Jan'25 -23.9bp (-27.8bp), Mar'25 -38.2bp (-42.4bp), May'25 -43.8bp (-49.9bp).
  • The Dec'24 10Y contract trades -4.5 at 109-09 vs. 109-04 low earlier - through technical support of 109-04 (76.4% of Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). Next support level at 109-00 followed by 108-27+ (Low Jun 3 (cont)).
     
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  • Treasury futures (and stocks as well) traded weaker as prepared text from Chairman Powell's comments on economy from Dallas aired. Powell Q&A underway with futures bouncing slightly.
  • Curves flattened sharply with 2s-10s leading the sell-off: 2s10s -7.150 at 8.976 vs. 17.491 high this morning.
  • Flattening has in turn sapped projected rate cuts into early 2025 that had moderated slightly from Wednesday highs earlier. Current levels vs. this morning (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -16.4bp (-19.8bp), Jan'25 -23.9bp (-27.8bp), Mar'25 -38.2bp (-42.4bp), May'25 -43.8bp (-49.9bp).
  • The Dec'24 10Y contract trades -4.5 at 109-09 vs. 109-04 low earlier - through technical support of 109-04 (76.4% of Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). Next support level at 109-00 followed by 108-27+ (Low Jun 3 (cont)).