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Free AccessMNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - CAD Slips as Trump Looks to Tariffs
MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, November 26
MNI BRiEF: Riksbank Puts Neutral Rate In 1.5 To 3.0% Range
US TSYS: TSY FUTURES AND GOLD HIGHER AS EQUITIES FALL
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsy trading mildly higher near the top of the range; moderate
volume (TYH 975k); Curves steeper. Today's data was led by US Empire
Manufacturing came in softer than expected which led to Tsy futures firming; US
NAHB Housing Market Index also came in weaker than expected;
-Trump took to twitter this morning to voice his opinion on this weeks FOMC
meeting, "*TRUMP SAYS FED `EVEN CONSIDERING' RATE HIKE IS `INCREDIBLE'-bbg"
-In the UK, "*CORBYN TO CALL FOR VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN PM MAY: BBC". Shortly
after the headline, "*MAY SAYS TO HOLD BREXIT DEAL VOTE IN PARLIAMENT WEEK OF
JAN. 14-bbg"
-Equities dropped lower this afternoon (emini -50.00, 2555.50) with a low of
2553.75. Heading into Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 was down 8.16% since
its last meeting in November.
-WTI down (WTI -1.74, 49.46), DXY fell -.330, 97.113 (97.052L/97.459H), $/Eur up
+0.0043 at 1.1349, $/Yen down -0.64 112.75; Gold up (XAU +7.41, 1245.85)
-Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 100-2.75 (2.700%), 5Y 100-26.25 (2.695%), 10Y 102-8.5
(2.859%), 30Y 105-00 (3.116%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading mildly higher near the top of the range; moderate
volume (TYH 975k); curves steeper; update:
* 2s10s +0.067, 15.504 (14.650L/16.043H);
* 2s30s +0.335, 41.157 (40.206L/41.883H);
* 5s30s +0.747, 41.854 (40.690L/42.544H);
Current futures levels:
* Mar Ultra bonds up 25/32 at 157-30 (156-31L/158-01H)
* Mar 30-yr Bond futures up 16/32 at 143-07 (142-20L/143-09H)
* Mar 10-yr futures up 08/32 at 120-20.5 (120-10.5L/120-21.5H)
* Mar 5-yr futures up 4.75/32 at 113-22.5 (113-16L/113-23.25H)
* Mar 2-yr futures up 2.25/32 at 105-23.75 (105-20.75L/105-24.25H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading mildly higher at or near the top of the
range; moderate volume. Current White pack (DEC'18-SEP'19):
* DEC'18 +0.0014 at 97.1964
* MAR'19 +0.025 at 97.245
* JUN'19 +0.035 at 97.200
* SEP'19 +0.040 at 97.165
* Red pack (DEC'19-SEP'20) +0.045-0.035
* Green pack (DEC'20-SEP'21) +0.035-0.030
* Blue pack (DEC'21-SEP'22) +0.025
* Gold pack (DEC'22-SEP'23) +0.030-0.025
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N -0.0034 to 2.1813% (-0.0034/wk)
* 1 Month +0.0146 to 2.4696% (+0.0146/wk)
* 3 Month +0.0029 to 2.8036% (+0.0029/wk)
* 6 Month +0.0041 to 2.9046% (+0.0041/wk)
* 1 Year +0.0062 to 3.1039% (+0.0062/wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.21% vs. 2.21% prior, $867B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.19% vs. 2.18% prior, $425B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.19% vs. 2.18% prior, $406B
US SWAPS: Latest spd levels:
* 2Y +0.14/14.83
* 5Y +0.40/10.70
* 10Y +0.55/3.70
* 30Y +0.75/-13.55
*** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
Dec 18 Nov housing starts (1.228m, 1.220m) 0830ET
Dec 18 Nov building permits (1.265m, 1.260m) 0830ET
Dec 18 Dec NY Fed Business Leaders Index (8.6, --) 0830ET
Dec 18 15-Dec Redbook retail sales m/m (-0.5%, --) 0855ET
Dec 18 - FOMC policy meeting kicks off
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:
* 3,000 Jun 72/73/75 call fly at 2 vs 9719/0.05%
* 3,000 Red Dec 68/71 put sprd at 11
* 4,000 Mar 70/71 3x2 put sprd at 3.5 vs 9722.5/0.25%
* 4,000 Short Mar 67/68 2x1 put sprd at 0.5 vs 9712.5/0.10%
* 4,000 Short Feb 67/68/70 put fly at 2 vs 9712/0.10%
* 8,000 Short Mar 73/75 call sprd vs Jun 75 calls for net 0 vs 9716.5/0.10%
* 2,750 Green Jan 70/75 calls over risk reversal at 0 vs 9722/0.20%
* 5,000 Jun 66/68 put sprd at 1.25 vs 9718.5/0.10%
* 7,000 Red Dec 67/70 put sprd at 8 vs 9712.5/0.25%
* -5,000 Short Jan 71 Straddle at 14
* -4,250 Blue Mar 72 Straddle with Short Mar 71 Straddle sprd at 1
* -4,250 Short Mar 68 puts at 0.5 over the Blue Mar 68 puts
* +10,000 Blue Feb 72 Straddle with Short Feb 71 Straddle sprd at 0
* 8,000 Mar 68 puts at 0.5 vs 9721.5/0.05%
* 9,250 Mar 71 Straddle at 15.5 vs 9721/0.42%
* 3,500 Red Mar 63/65 put sprd at 1 vs 9720.5/0.10%
* 2,500 Mar 70/71 put sprd at 2 vs 9723/0.10%
US TSY OPTIONS
US TSY OPTIONS: Latest trade,
* +2,500 TYF 120.5/121 1x2 call sprd at 5
* -2,000 FVF 113.75 calls at 8.5, total 3,500 all day from 8 to 8.5
* +2,000 TYG 122/122.5/123 call fly at 2 vs TYH 24.5/0.05%
* +1,750 USF 143 calls at 40
* +51,600 TYG9 121.5/122.5 call sprd at 9
* +2,000 FVF 113.5/113.75 calls over risk reversal at 1.5
* -5,000 TYG 122/123.5 1x2 call sprd at 2 vs 12/0.05%
* 2,700 FVF 114.25 calls at 1 vs 18.5/0.10%
* -1,500 TYF 120.75 calls at 10
--MNI Chicago Bureau; +1 630-698-0154; email: ryan.martin@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.