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US TSYS: Tsys Drift Near Session Lows, Bonds Underperforming

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries trade sideways near session lows after the bell - holding to a narrow range through the second half. Rates initially took cues from lower EGBs as sovereign debt and higher crude prices (WTI +1.37 at 70.59) weighed.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -22 at 111-17 after the bell, nearing technical support at 111-14 (50.0% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). Curves steepened: 2s10s +2.605 at 15.849, while 5s30s held near steady: +.021 at 51.270.
  • No meaningful economic data, focus on home sales flash PMIs, weekly claims, durables and UofM sentiment later this week.
  • No reaction to MN Fed Kashkari townhall event, says rates will surge if the U.S. deficit "goes to the moon", said tariffs are hard to analyze if they fall into a "vicious cycle".
  • U.S. balance sheet normalization can run on as the Federal Reserve lowers rates toward a more neutral level, and reserve balances are more than ample to ensure rate control, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Monday.
  • Projected rate cuts recede vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -22.3bp (-23.0bp), Dec'24 -40.1bp (-42.7bp), Jan'25 -57.6bp (-60.1bp).
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  • Treasuries trade sideways near session lows after the bell - holding to a narrow range through the second half. Rates initially took cues from lower EGBs as sovereign debt and higher crude prices (WTI +1.37 at 70.59) weighed.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -22 at 111-17 after the bell, nearing technical support at 111-14 (50.0% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)). Curves steepened: 2s10s +2.605 at 15.849, while 5s30s held near steady: +.021 at 51.270.
  • No meaningful economic data, focus on home sales flash PMIs, weekly claims, durables and UofM sentiment later this week.
  • No reaction to MN Fed Kashkari townhall event, says rates will surge if the U.S. deficit "goes to the moon", said tariffs are hard to analyze if they fall into a "vicious cycle".
  • U.S. balance sheet normalization can run on as the Federal Reserve lowers rates toward a more neutral level, and reserve balances are more than ample to ensure rate control, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Monday.
  • Projected rate cuts recede vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -22.3bp (-23.0bp), Dec'24 -40.1bp (-42.7bp), Jan'25 -57.6bp (-60.1bp).