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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Lower, Markets Cautious Ahead Of TSMC Earnings

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have edged slightly lower throughout the day, we trade just off session's worst and testing Wednesday's lows. TU is -00⅞ at 103-14¾, while TY is -03 at 112-14.
  • Focus in the region was on China's housing briefing, although the market seemed to be underwhelmed with property stocks trading off 2-10%. Australia had stronger-than-expected employment data, which saw rate cuts pushed further out, while the 2yr yields jumped 5bps.
  • The world's largest chipmaker TSMC will release earnings shortly, a miss could see risk assets sell off heavily, following the reaction to ASML's lower-than-expected sales guidance on Tuesday.
  • Earlier, Kamala Harris interviewed on Fox, where she emphasized that her presidency would not be a continuation of Biden’s, as she would bring her own life experiences and fresh ideas. Betting markets edged slightly further in Trumps direction during the interview, while PredictIt was unchanged.
  • Cash tsy curve has bear-steepened today, yields are +0.5bps to 2bps higher. The 2yr is trading +0.9bps at 3.947%, while the 10yr is +1.8bps at 4.03%. The 2s10s is +0.704 at 7.952.
  • Fed fund futures are pricing in 23.6bps or 95% chance of a cut at the November meeting, and 45.5bps of cuts by the December meeting both little changed over the past few sessions. Looking further out the curve there is 145bps priced in through to October 2025.
  • Data picks up today with two key reports: weekly jobless claims (following up from the previous week's hurricane-impacted upside surprise) and retail sales. Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee also makes an appearance at a careers event so unlikely to be a market-mover.
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  • Tsys futures have edged slightly lower throughout the day, we trade just off session's worst and testing Wednesday's lows. TU is -00⅞ at 103-14¾, while TY is -03 at 112-14.
  • Focus in the region was on China's housing briefing, although the market seemed to be underwhelmed with property stocks trading off 2-10%. Australia had stronger-than-expected employment data, which saw rate cuts pushed further out, while the 2yr yields jumped 5bps.
  • The world's largest chipmaker TSMC will release earnings shortly, a miss could see risk assets sell off heavily, following the reaction to ASML's lower-than-expected sales guidance on Tuesday.
  • Earlier, Kamala Harris interviewed on Fox, where she emphasized that her presidency would not be a continuation of Biden’s, as she would bring her own life experiences and fresh ideas. Betting markets edged slightly further in Trumps direction during the interview, while PredictIt was unchanged.
  • Cash tsy curve has bear-steepened today, yields are +0.5bps to 2bps higher. The 2yr is trading +0.9bps at 3.947%, while the 10yr is +1.8bps at 4.03%. The 2s10s is +0.704 at 7.952.
  • Fed fund futures are pricing in 23.6bps or 95% chance of a cut at the November meeting, and 45.5bps of cuts by the December meeting both little changed over the past few sessions. Looking further out the curve there is 145bps priced in through to October 2025.
  • Data picks up today with two key reports: weekly jobless claims (following up from the previous week's hurricane-impacted upside surprise) and retail sales. Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee also makes an appearance at a careers event so unlikely to be a market-mover.