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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Off Earlier Highs, Curve Ber-Flattens, Fed Speakers Later

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures are off earlier session highs, although ranges remain narrow. TU is currently +00¾ at 102-22⅛, TY is +04+ is 110-01+. There has been little in the way of drivers through the session, USD continues to edge higher making new yearly highs as investors await remarks from Fed speaker tonight and inflation data due later in the week.
  • Cash tsys have reopened after a three day break, with the curve bear-flattening, yields are -1bps to +4bps, with the 3yr yield underperforming. The 2yr is +3.2bps at 4.286%, while the 10yr is +1.8bps at 4.322%. The 2s10s continues to flatten is testing recent lows, at 4bps back at October 10 levels.
  • The flattening move was supported earlier after a Block 2s10s flattener, DV01 $645k
  • The market is no longer pricing in a full rate cut in December, projected rate cuts into early 2025 compared to early Monday levels (*): Dec'24 cumulative -16.3bp (-17.1bp), Jan'25 -24.3bp (-25.7bp), Mar'25 -37.6bp (-38.9bp), May'25 -45.0bp (-46.9bp).
  • It is another slow session for US data, Fed speakers will be the focus with Waller, Barkin, Kashkari and Harker all speaking, while attention will turn to CPI on Wednesday
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  • Tsys futures are off earlier session highs, although ranges remain narrow. TU is currently +00¾ at 102-22⅛, TY is +04+ is 110-01+. There has been little in the way of drivers through the session, USD continues to edge higher making new yearly highs as investors await remarks from Fed speaker tonight and inflation data due later in the week.
  • Cash tsys have reopened after a three day break, with the curve bear-flattening, yields are -1bps to +4bps, with the 3yr yield underperforming. The 2yr is +3.2bps at 4.286%, while the 10yr is +1.8bps at 4.322%. The 2s10s continues to flatten is testing recent lows, at 4bps back at October 10 levels.
  • The flattening move was supported earlier after a Block 2s10s flattener, DV01 $645k
  • The market is no longer pricing in a full rate cut in December, projected rate cuts into early 2025 compared to early Monday levels (*): Dec'24 cumulative -16.3bp (-17.1bp), Jan'25 -24.3bp (-25.7bp), Mar'25 -37.6bp (-38.9bp), May'25 -45.0bp (-46.9bp).
  • It is another slow session for US data, Fed speakers will be the focus with Waller, Barkin, Kashkari and Harker all speaking, while attention will turn to CPI on Wednesday