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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Open Slightly Lower, Fed Speakers Later

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures sold off post NY close on Friday, although still finished slightly higher on the day. Futures sold off during the European session before bouncing off those lows following dovish comments from Fed Gov Waller on CNBC, consistent with the Fed going 50bp at the next meeting in November.
  • TU closed +01+ at 104-11¼, while TY closed +03+ at 114-27, we trade slightly lower this morning.
  • Gov Waller expressed concern with inflation undershooting, not overshooting, noting firms' limited pricing power and wage inflation coming down, and that inflation is potentially on a lower path that had previously been expected.
  • Fed Governor Bowman (voter) has issued a statement explaining why she dissented against the FOMC’s decision to cut the Fed Funds target range by 50bps on Wednesday.
  • Cash tsys curve bear-steepened, yields closed 1-3bps higher. The 2yr closed +1bps at 3.591%, while the 10yr closed 2.7bps at 3.741%. The 2s10s hit its highest since June 2022, closing 1.849 at 14.611
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 bounced off early session lows, latest vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-35.9bp), Dec'24 -75.0bp (-72.4bp), Jan'25 -108.5bp (-106.5bp).
  • Looking ahead we have more Fed speak from Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari, data includes flash PMI data from S&P Global.
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  • Tsys futures sold off post NY close on Friday, although still finished slightly higher on the day. Futures sold off during the European session before bouncing off those lows following dovish comments from Fed Gov Waller on CNBC, consistent with the Fed going 50bp at the next meeting in November.
  • TU closed +01+ at 104-11¼, while TY closed +03+ at 114-27, we trade slightly lower this morning.
  • Gov Waller expressed concern with inflation undershooting, not overshooting, noting firms' limited pricing power and wage inflation coming down, and that inflation is potentially on a lower path that had previously been expected.
  • Fed Governor Bowman (voter) has issued a statement explaining why she dissented against the FOMC’s decision to cut the Fed Funds target range by 50bps on Wednesday.
  • Cash tsys curve bear-steepened, yields closed 1-3bps higher. The 2yr closed +1bps at 3.591%, while the 10yr closed 2.7bps at 3.741%. The 2s10s hit its highest since June 2022, closing 1.849 at 14.611
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 bounced off early session lows, latest vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-35.9bp), Dec'24 -75.0bp (-72.4bp), Jan'25 -108.5bp (-106.5bp).
  • Looking ahead we have more Fed speak from Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari, data includes flash PMI data from S&P Global.