MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Add Forex Reserves Allocation In HK - Pan

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Oil Imports Down 1.9%

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1885 Mon; -2.21% Y/Y

CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Raise Key Parameter For Shoring Up Yuan

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY10.7 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Exports Grow 5.9% Y/Y

CHINA 2024 EXPORTS +7.1% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

USDA: CORN STOCKS 12,074M BSL ON JAN 1

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Tsys Futures Rebound Following FOMC, Busy Data Docket Ahead

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures initially sold off to start the US session overnight, before a muted response following both the 2yr & 5yr bond auctions, short-end then pared some of the session weakness following the release of the FOMC minutes, which showed members backing gradual rate cuts. TU closed +00 at 102-22⅛, while TY closed -06+ at 110-10+ after hitting session lows of 110-05+.
  • Cash tsy curve saw the belly of the curve underperform throughout the session, with the 2s7s30s fly rising 5.5bps to -26.25bps. Yields ended the session +0.5bps to +3.5bps, with a slightly bear-steepening. The 2yr closed +06bps at 4.256%, while the 10yr closed +3.3bps at 4.306%. The 2s10s briefly inverted again, before closing +5bps at 4.810.
  • Traders are increasingly bearish, positioning for a potential surge in yields in the coming weeks. Demand for put options on 10yr futures, particularly in January and February contracts, has risen, with strikes targeting yields between 4.45% and 4.7%, yields not seen since April 2024. There was a large trade  on Tuesday targeting yields as high as 4.9%, suggesting concern over renewed inflationary pressures linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including steeper tariffs.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed slightly for the near-term while we have seen levels cool further out the curve (the Dec rate is -1.8bp since Monday & +3.2bp for the Jun’25). It leaves 15.8bp of cuts for Dec before a cumulative 21bp for Jan and 49.2bp for June.
  • Later today we have a busy session ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday with MBA Mortgage Applications, GDP revisions for Q3, monthly PCE for October, Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims & MNI Chicago PMI
269 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Tsys futures initially sold off to start the US session overnight, before a muted response following both the 2yr & 5yr bond auctions, short-end then pared some of the session weakness following the release of the FOMC minutes, which showed members backing gradual rate cuts. TU closed +00 at 102-22⅛, while TY closed -06+ at 110-10+ after hitting session lows of 110-05+.
  • Cash tsy curve saw the belly of the curve underperform throughout the session, with the 2s7s30s fly rising 5.5bps to -26.25bps. Yields ended the session +0.5bps to +3.5bps, with a slightly bear-steepening. The 2yr closed +06bps at 4.256%, while the 10yr closed +3.3bps at 4.306%. The 2s10s briefly inverted again, before closing +5bps at 4.810.
  • Traders are increasingly bearish, positioning for a potential surge in yields in the coming weeks. Demand for put options on 10yr futures, particularly in January and February contracts, has risen, with strikes targeting yields between 4.45% and 4.7%, yields not seen since April 2024. There was a large trade  on Tuesday targeting yields as high as 4.9%, suggesting concern over renewed inflationary pressures linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including steeper tariffs.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed slightly for the near-term while we have seen levels cool further out the curve (the Dec rate is -1.8bp since Monday & +3.2bp for the Jun’25). It leaves 15.8bp of cuts for Dec before a cumulative 21bp for Jan and 49.2bp for June.
  • Later today we have a busy session ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday with MBA Mortgage Applications, GDP revisions for Q3, monthly PCE for October, Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims & MNI Chicago PMI