Weekly China Summary: Oil Demand to Slow in 2024

Oil demand growth in China is expected to slow to 500kbpd in 2024 according to the median of 12 industry consultants and analyst estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.

• CDU capacity utilisation rates in December across China are expected to fall by 1.24 percentage points to average 70.56% amid lagging winter demand, according to OilChem.
• China’s seaborne crude imports fell below the 10mbd mark in November for the first time since February according to Vortexa - the first y/y decrease in crude imports compared to the prior 9-months which have consistently been at least 10% higher.
• Chinese refiners are rejecting offers of Venezuelan oil as the price discount falls due to the easing of US sanctions while shipments to India are increasing according to Bloomberg. Venezuelan oil was less than 2% of China’s total imports in the first 10 months of 2023 but supplies can be as much as 20% of the feedstock at some private refineries according to Oilchem.
• China’s economic growth this year should print above 5%, according to Liu Shijin, deputy director at the Economic Committee of the 13th National Committee.
• POLICY: China's exports rose 0.5% y/y in November, up from October's 6.4% y/y fall, the first increase in seven months, beating the consensus of a 0.3% y/y decrease, data released by Customs on Thursday showed.
• FROM THE PRESS: Moody's downgrade of China’s rating outlook over concerns about economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability was unnecessary, according to officials from the Ministry of Finance