US Yields Find Support, As Outright Buyers Emerge

TYH4 is trading at 111-02, + 09+ from NY closing levels.

Treasuries have had an uneventful day, trading off US session lows in early Asia trading and have been in a holding pattern for the remainder of the day, trading in a tight range.

• Futures have pushed to a intraday high of 111-02 post Asia lunch, although still trade below pre ISM data levels of 111-04+ from Monday. Outright buyers have been seen as fueling the push higher, outside of any notable news.
• Cash yields have are 2-4bps lower today, with the 2Y yield is 3.9bps lower at 4.432%, while the 10Y is 3.5bps lower at 4.123%. The 2y10y is currently -30.70, off the lows post Jobs data Friday of -40.198.
• Stronger than expected US data and Fed speakers' cautious tones around cutting interest rates have seen projected rate rates continue to retreat in recent sessions: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut is currently -16.4% vs. -18.3% from yesterday w/ cumulative of -4.1bp at 5.283%, May 2024 at -56.2% vs. -57.1% w/ cumulative -19.1bp at 5.133% while June 2024 -81.9% from -82.4% w/ cumulative -39.6bp at 4.930%.
• Tuesday focus: no data, but several Fed speakers are scheduled: Cleveland Fed Mester economic outlook at 1200ET, MN Fed Kashkari moderated Q&A, livestreamed at 1300ET, Boston Fed Collins open remarks labor conference, livestreamed, no Q&A at 1400ET, Philly Fed Harker on Fed role in the economy, text, Q&A at 1900ET.