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US: YouGov MRP Model Leans Towards Harris

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YouGov has released its second multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) model for the presidential election, showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump - largely in line with polling but slightly more favourable to Harris in the northern battlegrounds. 

  • YouGov notes: "The second release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just three weeks before the election. The October 16 update shows Harris with 250 electoral votes, Trump with 219, and 69 electoral votes as tossups." This is a change from the September 10 release, which showed Harris with 256 votes, Trump with 235, and 47 electoral votes as tossups."
  • YouGov adds: "270 votes are needed to be elected and, according to our model, the outcome will be determined by races that we currently rate as tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. All of these contests are within the margin of error and could go either way."
  • The model diverges slightly from polling by showing Harris with a stronger lead in Wisconsin (+4) and Trump with a weaker lead in Texas (+4). The model also suggests that Wisconsin and Michigan is leaning sufficiently towards Harris to warrant not being described as 'toss-ups'. 

Figure 1: YouGov MRP Electoral College Model

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YouGov has released its second multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) model for the presidential election, showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump - largely in line with polling but slightly more favourable to Harris in the northern battlegrounds. 

  • YouGov notes: "The second release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just three weeks before the election. The October 16 update shows Harris with 250 electoral votes, Trump with 219, and 69 electoral votes as tossups." This is a change from the September 10 release, which showed Harris with 256 votes, Trump with 235, and 47 electoral votes as tossups."
  • YouGov adds: "270 votes are needed to be elected and, according to our model, the outcome will be determined by races that we currently rate as tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. All of these contests are within the margin of error and could go either way."
  • The model diverges slightly from polling by showing Harris with a stronger lead in Wisconsin (+4) and Trump with a weaker lead in Texas (+4). The model also suggests that Wisconsin and Michigan is leaning sufficiently towards Harris to warrant not being described as 'toss-ups'. 

Figure 1: YouGov MRP Electoral College Model

Keep reading...Show less