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USD: An August Finish at Current or Lower Levels Would Be Worst in Near 25 Years

USD
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  • We wrote last week that markets need not re-price 125bps of Fed cuts this year in order for the USD Index to revisit recent lows, and that's played out, with the DXY breaking below 102.00 and the Jan 5th low to print the lowest levels since January 2nd.
  • EUR remains the key driver of the sell-off, but JPY will also be making a solid contribution today - and is prompting the USD Index to undergo it's poorest August since 2001, having dropped 2.0% month-to-date vs. 2001's 3.2% decline. The average August return for the USD Index amounts to +0.4%.
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  • We wrote last week that markets need not re-price 125bps of Fed cuts this year in order for the USD Index to revisit recent lows, and that's played out, with the DXY breaking below 102.00 and the Jan 5th low to print the lowest levels since January 2nd.
  • EUR remains the key driver of the sell-off, but JPY will also be making a solid contribution today - and is prompting the USD Index to undergo it's poorest August since 2001, having dropped 2.0% month-to-date vs. 2001's 3.2% decline. The average August return for the USD Index amounts to +0.4%.