March 16, 2023 06:04 GMT
USD/Asia Off Session Highs, THB Outperforming
USD/Asia pairs are down from session highs currently, with USD indices off by 0.15% at this stage, helping sentiment in the region. Regional equities are mostly weaker but away from lows, with higher EU/US futures a positive. Still to come is the BI decision, which is expected to see rates left on hold. Tomorrow, Singapore Feb trade figures are out, along with Malaysia trade figures as well.
- USD/CNH was weaker in the first part of trade (6.8846 low), but didn't see much follow and we spike towards Wednesday highs (6.9139) before settling back to the 6.9000 level. Onshore equities are weaker, although we have seen modest Northbound Stock Connect flows (0.5bn yuan).
- 1 month USD/KRW got close to the 1314 level, but we now sit back at 1308/09. Local equities are close to flat, but offshore investors have sold over $300mn in local equities. USD/KRW remains fairly close to the mid-point of its recent ranges.
- The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is marginally firmer today, post the fallout from the shift lower in global tightening expectations has seen volatile swings in the NEER but today NEER sits within recent ranges. We now sit ~1% below the top of the band. USD/SGD failed to break below the 20-Day EMA ($1.3453) in yesterday's trading. The pair was offered this morning as Credit Suisse said they will enter a liquidity pact with the SNB, however the losses have been pared as the USD consolidates its recent gains and the pair sits at $1.3510/20.
- USD/IDR got to 15450 not long after today's open. We sit slightly lower now, just under 15400. We aren't too far away from earlier March highs from last week in the 15465/15475 region. Note that we did see BI intervene in FX markets when we touched those highs. Later today we have the BI decision, no change is expected, see our full preview here.
- USD/INR sits in the 82.65/70 region currently. We were above 82.80 not long after the open. As we edge closer to the 83.00 level, RBI intervention risks will no doubt firm. Like elsewhere in the region, the rupee is being weighed by a weaker equity market backdrop, with the Nifty now 10% off Dec highs. This leaves the index in technical correction territory.
- USD/THB sits around 34.50 currently. Through March dips towards 34.40 have been supported in the pair, although the baht is still ~2.50% up for the month so far, comfortably ahead of the next best performer (the won +0.90%). If the baht was following ADXY trend closer it would arguably be closer to 35.00. The currency may be seen as a somewhat of a safe haven in the region given the current turmoil in global banking stocks. Anecdotes from China suggest further momentum around outbound tourism.