January 19, 2023 05:10 GMT
USD/Asia Pairs Follow USD/JPY Lower, BI & BNM Decisions Still To Come
USD/Asia moved off earlier highs, aided by lower USD/JPY levels. Equity sentiment also picked up from lows for key bourses. Still to come today is the BI and BNM decisions, with both central banks expected to hike by 25bps. Tomorrow, the China 1yr and 5yr LPR decisions are due, but no change is expected. Malaysia CPI also prints, along with the South Korean PPI.
- USD/CNH met resistance once again at 6.7900. The pair last at 6.7740/50, well within recent ranges. The move lower was aided as broader USD sentiment softened against the major, particularly the yen, while a recovery in China/HK equity sentiment, also helped. Position lightening may still take place tomorrow, ahead of the LNY break.
- 1 month USD/KRW spiked above 1240 earlier in the session, but now sits back at the 1233.50 level, around +0.25% versus NY closing levels. A resilient equity backdrop, plus continued equity flows (near $200mn) have helped, although the pair remains above NY session lows around the 1225 level.
- USD/SGD printed a fresh cycle low at 1.3129 before rebounding strongly as the USD recovered off its lowest level since late May 2022. The pair was last printing 1.3220/25. Despite the sharp turnaround in USD/SGD, technicals remain bearish for the pair. We sit comfortably below the 20,50,100,200 EMAs. The next target for bears is the 2018 low at 1.3009, bulls first look to break 20-Day EMA at 1.3342 to halt the bear's momentum. The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is drifting lower today. We sit slightly lower relative to the top end of the band (-0.86% currently). We were around -0.60% this time last week.
- USD/THB is firmer. The pair pushed above 33.15 in early trade, reflecting some catch up with a firmer USD backdrop after yesterday's onshore spot close. Still, we found selling interest and sit back at 33.04 presently, still +0.55% for the session. USD/THB has stabilized in the past week.
- USD/IDR is range bound around the 15100 currently. The market awaits the BI decision due later, with +25bps expected.
- USD/MYR is close to YTD lows, last around the 4.3150/55 region. BNM's decision, also due later, is also expected to deliver a +25bps hike. The 50-day MA is threatening to break below the 200-day, presenting a so-called death cross for USD/MYR.