MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

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CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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USD/Asia Pairs Lower Post FOMC

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are lower post the FOMC, but we are away from best levels. USD/CNH couldn't sustain a move sub 6.9000, while USD/KRW found support below 1320 for the 1 month NDF. Regional equity trends have been mixed, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China was weaker than expected. Tomorrow, we get the Caixin services PMI for China. Taiwan inflation is out, as is the Philippines CPI. Singapore retail sales, and Indonesia Q1 GDP are also due. Malaysia markets return tomorrow, but Thailand's remain closed.

  • Positive CNH sentiment was halted by the weaker than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI print (49.5, versus 50.0 expected). USD/CNH did eventually get sub 6.9000 (but only as far as 6.8960/65), we now sit back close to 6.9060. It has been an indifferent lead for China equity markets on a return from the May day holiday period.
  • USD/KRW has mostly traded with a softer bias, shrugging off US recession concerns. The 1 month NDF got to a low of 1318.45, before rebounding back towards 1322, which is where we currently track. This puts us back below the 200-day MA around 1326. Onshore equities are up off earlier lows, with the Kospi close to flat at this stage.
  • USD/IDR has fallen to fresh YTD lows, despite cross asset headwinds. The pair got to a low of 14575 but is now back to 14630/35, still ~0.35% firmer in IDR terms versus yesterday's close. Broad USD/Asia losses are helping the IDR rally. From a technical standpoint, not much appears in the way of a move to the low 14400 regions (lows from June last year), if we can sustain a break of 14600.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) firmed to its highest level since the April MAS meeting yesterday before moderating gains. We currently sit ~0.9% below the top of the band. USD/SGD is under pressure today, the pair is down ~0.2% following a broader USD/Asia trend. Post FOMC lows remain intact for now, and the pair sits at $1.3270/75. Apr S&P Global PMI printed at 55.3, rising from the prior read of 52.6, to print its highest level since November 2022.
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