MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, May 16

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MNI BRIEF: Aussie Unemployment Rises To 4.1% In April

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Liquidity Unchanged

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CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EFSF Synd; SK Auction, BoE APF Monday

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RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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USD/Asia Pairs Mixed, Won Rebounds, THB Weakens As Onshore Market Re-Open

ASIA FX
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, with CNH modestly stronger, while KRW has rebounded strongly. A number of SEA currencies are weaker, most notably THB, with the country's onshore markets returning from a 3 day break. The better tone to some regional equity markets, along with lower BBDXY levels, has likely helped cap USD/Asia upside. The data calendar is fairly light tomorrow.

  • USD/CNH sits slightly lower, last under 7.2600. This keeps us comfortably within April to date ranges. Sources of support have been from the steady CNY fixing outcome. CNH liquidity also remains tight. The 1 month CNH Hibor in HK above 5%, close to fresh highs since 2018. Still, US-CH government bond yield differentials point to higher USD/CNH levels. Onshore USD/CNY spot is also showing very limited downside and continues to trade close to the top end of the daily fixing band, which still suggests underlying onshore depreciation pressures.
  • Spot USD/KRW sits back near 1385, up slightly from session lows just under 1383, but still 0.7% stronger in KRW terms. We had fresh jaw boning this morning from both the BoK Governor and FinMin who are in the US at the moment for G20 meetings. Yesterday's highs around 1400 likely remain a short term line in the sand for the pair. For spot USD/KRW the 20-day EMA sits back near 1358.6.
  • USD/SGD is down a touch last near 1.3640. Recent highs rest at 1.3670. We had weaker than expected export data earlier. Headline exports fell -8.4% m/m, -20.7% y/y. Electronic exports were down -9.4% y/y (prior +5.2%). the GSD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is slightly higher though, last -0.73% from the top end of the band (end Tuesday levels were -0.78%).
  • Thailand markets return today, after being shut since last Thursday (11th of April). The early FX trend is a fairly muted one, but as the session has progressed USD gains have firmed. USD/THB was last near 36.84, +0.60% firmer. This is close to earlier April highs, a break above these levels would likely see 37.00 targeted. On the downside, the 20-day EMA is back near 36.375.
  • USD/PHP spot has broken above 57.00 in the first part of Wednesday trade. The pair was last around 57.24, fresh highs back to Nov 2022, -0.40% weaker in PHP terms for the session, (earlier highs were at 57.266). BSP Governor Remolona stated yesterday that the 57.00 level was not a strong resistance point as far as the authorities were concerned. He also added that tensions in the South China Sea were another source of PHP pressure.• The Governor also cautioned against rate cut expectations, with inflation at risk of being above the target for the third year (BBG).
  • USD/IDR is up around 0.30% in the first part of Wednesday trade, last near 16230. Earlier highs were at 16260. Some pent up demand for onshore dollars may be a factor, given markets only returned yesterday from an extended break. Still, the slightly improved regional equity tone has helped push the 1 month USD/IDR NDF down from recent highs.
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, with CNH modestly stronger, while KRW has rebounded strongly. A number of SEA currencies are weaker, most notably THB, with the country's onshore markets returning from a 3 day break. The better tone to some regional equity markets, along with lower BBDXY levels, has likely helped cap USD/Asia upside. The data calendar is fairly light tomorrow.

  • USD/CNH sits slightly lower, last under 7.2600. This keeps us comfortably within April to date ranges. Sources of support have been from the steady CNY fixing outcome. CNH liquidity also remains tight. The 1 month CNH Hibor in HK above 5%, close to fresh highs since 2018. Still, US-CH government bond yield differentials point to higher USD/CNH levels. Onshore USD/CNY spot is also showing very limited downside and continues to trade close to the top end of the daily fixing band, which still suggests underlying onshore depreciation pressures.
  • Spot USD/KRW sits back near 1385, up slightly from session lows just under 1383, but still 0.7% stronger in KRW terms. We had fresh jaw boning this morning from both the BoK Governor and FinMin who are in the US at the moment for G20 meetings. Yesterday's highs around 1400 likely remain a short term line in the sand for the pair. For spot USD/KRW the 20-day EMA sits back near 1358.6.
  • USD/SGD is down a touch last near 1.3640. Recent highs rest at 1.3670. We had weaker than expected export data earlier. Headline exports fell -8.4% m/m, -20.7% y/y. Electronic exports were down -9.4% y/y (prior +5.2%). the GSD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is slightly higher though, last -0.73% from the top end of the band (end Tuesday levels were -0.78%).
  • Thailand markets return today, after being shut since last Thursday (11th of April). The early FX trend is a fairly muted one, but as the session has progressed USD gains have firmed. USD/THB was last near 36.84, +0.60% firmer. This is close to earlier April highs, a break above these levels would likely see 37.00 targeted. On the downside, the 20-day EMA is back near 36.375.
  • USD/PHP spot has broken above 57.00 in the first part of Wednesday trade. The pair was last around 57.24, fresh highs back to Nov 2022, -0.40% weaker in PHP terms for the session, (earlier highs were at 57.266). BSP Governor Remolona stated yesterday that the 57.00 level was not a strong resistance point as far as the authorities were concerned. He also added that tensions in the South China Sea were another source of PHP pressure.• The Governor also cautioned against rate cut expectations, with inflation at risk of being above the target for the third year (BBG).
  • USD/IDR is up around 0.30% in the first part of Wednesday trade, last near 16230. Earlier highs were at 16260. Some pent up demand for onshore dollars may be a factor, given markets only returned yesterday from an extended break. Still, the slightly improved regional equity tone has helped push the 1 month USD/IDR NDF down from recent highs.