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USD/Asia Pairs Mostly Higher, CNH & KRW Outperform

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mixed, mostly higher in line with the firmer USD tone post Powell's press conference overnight. However, CNH and KRW have seen some outperformance. Still to come is the BNM decision (+25bps expected). Tomorrow, we get Philippines inflation and trade, along with Singapore retail sales.

  • The tone in China equities has been weaker, weighed by the health authorities stating that the Covid-zero policy zero will be adhered to. A weaker Caixin services PMI has also likely weighed. Still, USD/CNH hasn't tracked higher, the pair is back to a 7.3200 handle, with selling interest evident above 7.3400. Onshore spot is back above 7.3000, but hasn't made fresh cyclical highs.
  • USD/KRW 1 month is back through 1420. Onshore equities are lower for the session, but have recouped a large proportion of earlier session losses (sub 2300, now back to +2332). Geopolitical tensions, amid a report North Korean ICBM test, haven't weighed on sentiment. Earlier, BoK FX reserves fell further in October (to $414.01bn) but the pace of losses wasn't as large as September.
  • USD/INR is creeping back towards 83.00 (last 82.80/85). There will be some focus on today's RBI meeting to respond to the government after the central bank failed to meet its inflation target for 3 straight quarters, but this is unlikely to shift the RBI's policy bias. The services PMI improved in October to 55.1 from 54.3.
  • USD/IDR is at fresh cyclical highs, last at 15682, +34 figs for the session. BI doesn't expect 2022 inflation pressures to be strong as initially feared. Core inflation could be below 4.3%, headline sub 6.3%. The second round for inflation pressures hasn't been large as expected. Foreign investors were net sellers of $23.46mn in Indonesian stocks, with the Jakarta Comp probing the water below its 100-DMA.
  • Spot USD/PHP has advanced in the wake of Wednesday's monetary policy decision in the U.S., even as the local central bank vowed to match the Fed's move. We were last at 58.705, + 0.23 figs for the session. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will need to match the Fed's 75bp rate hike at its meeting on November 17, Governor Medalla told reporters today. He emphasized that the impending rate rise will not be "off cycle," since it takes effect after the next scheduled policy review.
  • Spot USD/MYR is drifting higher, last around 4.7455. From a technical standpoint, topside focus falls on MYR4.8850, which represents a record high for USD/MYR. Bank Negara Malaysia may increase its Overnight Policy Rate by 25bp today as core inflation continues to accelerate (we have outlined the case for such a scenario in our preview.
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, mostly higher in line with the firmer USD tone post Powell's press conference overnight. However, CNH and KRW have seen some outperformance. Still to come is the BNM decision (+25bps expected). Tomorrow, we get Philippines inflation and trade, along with Singapore retail sales.

  • The tone in China equities has been weaker, weighed by the health authorities stating that the Covid-zero policy zero will be adhered to. A weaker Caixin services PMI has also likely weighed. Still, USD/CNH hasn't tracked higher, the pair is back to a 7.3200 handle, with selling interest evident above 7.3400. Onshore spot is back above 7.3000, but hasn't made fresh cyclical highs.
  • USD/KRW 1 month is back through 1420. Onshore equities are lower for the session, but have recouped a large proportion of earlier session losses (sub 2300, now back to +2332). Geopolitical tensions, amid a report North Korean ICBM test, haven't weighed on sentiment. Earlier, BoK FX reserves fell further in October (to $414.01bn) but the pace of losses wasn't as large as September.
  • USD/INR is creeping back towards 83.00 (last 82.80/85). There will be some focus on today's RBI meeting to respond to the government after the central bank failed to meet its inflation target for 3 straight quarters, but this is unlikely to shift the RBI's policy bias. The services PMI improved in October to 55.1 from 54.3.
  • USD/IDR is at fresh cyclical highs, last at 15682, +34 figs for the session. BI doesn't expect 2022 inflation pressures to be strong as initially feared. Core inflation could be below 4.3%, headline sub 6.3%. The second round for inflation pressures hasn't been large as expected. Foreign investors were net sellers of $23.46mn in Indonesian stocks, with the Jakarta Comp probing the water below its 100-DMA.
  • Spot USD/PHP has advanced in the wake of Wednesday's monetary policy decision in the U.S., even as the local central bank vowed to match the Fed's move. We were last at 58.705, + 0.23 figs for the session. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will need to match the Fed's 75bp rate hike at its meeting on November 17, Governor Medalla told reporters today. He emphasized that the impending rate rise will not be "off cycle," since it takes effect after the next scheduled policy review.
  • Spot USD/MYR is drifting higher, last around 4.7455. From a technical standpoint, topside focus falls on MYR4.8850, which represents a record high for USD/MYR. Bank Negara Malaysia may increase its Overnight Policy Rate by 25bp today as core inflation continues to accelerate (we have outlined the case for such a scenario in our preview.