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USD/Asia Pairs Underperform Broader USD Weakness


USD/Asia pairs have drifted down a touch, although USD/THB has been marked higher as onshore markets return, while USD/IDR is firmer, despite the better risk backdrop. This is underperforming the generally softer USD tone seen against the majors. The BBDXY is off -0.17% ahead of the upcoming US CPI print. PHP shrugged off a wider than expected trade deficit, while MYR hasn't reacted to a cabinet reshuffle. Still to come today is Nov CPI for India, as well as Oct IP.

  • USD/CNH has tracked tight ranges overall. The pair sits under 7.1900, which is where we have spent much of the session. We are around 0.1% stronger in CNH terms. The CNY fixing error widened, while onshore equity indices are close to flat at this stage, although property sub-indices are doing better. Focus is on the outcomes of a key economic meeting, which should outline key 2024 economic targets/stimulus plans.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has drifted lower, last in the 1313/14 range. Onshore equities are firmer, up +0.50% for the Kospi, but this hasn't seen local FX outperformance. Tomorrow we get Nov trade prices early.
  • USD/IDR sits near 15630 in recent dealings, down slightly from session highs at 15648. This is still fresh multi week highs in the pair. We are above all key EMAs, with Nov 13 highs back at 15721. Note on the downside, the 50-day EMA is back near 15560. IDR is underperforming a generally firmer global risk appetite backdrop, particularly in the equity space. Locally 5yr CDS remain very close to recent lows around 75bps. Note later today we have the presidential debate from 7pm local time.
  • USD/THB has gaped higher as onshore markets return after yesterday's holiday. The pair was last in the 35.60/50 region, slightly below session highs. We are above all key EMAs and have pushed through the simple 100-day MA (35.535). Note the simple 50-day MA rests higher at 35.90. Baht weakness looks to be stretching beyond what is implied by a slightly firmer USD index backdrop. Likewise, when we look at USD/THB versus US-TH yield differentials. Local equities remain underperforming, with the SET near recent cyclical lows, which continues to imply higher USD/THB levels. We may get fiscal news later today, as PM Srettha chairs a meeting.
  • USD/PHP sits slightly lower, last near 55.56. This is down from recent highs (55.665), but comfortably above earlier Dec lows at 55.24. On the data front, we had the Oct trade deficit print wider than expected, but this didn't impact market sentiment.
  • USD/MYR is around 4.6840 in recent dealings, little changed for the session. As expected, PM Anwar announced a cabinet reshuffle. The PM will share the Finance portfolio with Amir Hamzah, who currently heads the Malaysia's largest pension fund (see this BBG link for more details).

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