MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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USD Bounces On Hot US Consumer Confidence And Post-Auction Yield Climb

FOREX
  • Stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence provided the greenback with a temporary boost on Tuesday before receiving a second wind from higher US Treasury yields after tails at two- and five-year auctions in a holiday-shortened week.
  • The DXY at 104.63 has reversed earlier losses, which saw it notable pierce the 200-dma support of 104.41 earlier in the session, although it’s yet to recoup Monday’s decline in Memorial Day thinned trade.
  • SEK has outperformed its G10 peers, rising around 0.45% against the dollar, whilst the JPY is bottom of the pack against the sharply higher yield backdrop, with USDJPY hitting 157.16 to step close to resistance at 157.20 (May 23 high).
  • With Eurozone inflation data highlighting the calendar over the next 48 hours, EURUSD traded solidly around the 1.0875 mark but has since dipped to sub-1.0860. The current trend condition is bullish following a bear channel breakout on May 15 - price cleared the top of a channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Sights are on 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • USDCNH traded firmer again in early London hours, extending recent outperformance and putting the pair to new monthly highs at 7.2642. Today's price action narrows the gap with next major resistance into 7.2739.
  • SEK extends recent outperformance to press EUR/SEK below the 200-dma of 11.4988 – and looks set to close below this average for the first time since early April.
  • Australian April CPI will be a focus for the APAC docket on Wednesday after the RBA revised up its Q2 forecast for both headline and core to 3.8% and cited upside risks to inflation. Last week’s move lower in AUDUSD appears to have been a correction and a bullish cycle that started Apr 19 still remains in play. The pair has recently breached a key short-term hurdle at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, strengthening a bullish theme and a resumption of gains would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6581, the 50-day EMA.
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