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BRAZILIAN REAL: USD/BRL finished the muted session Monday at 3.9363 with
sporadic market closures across Europe and the US keeping volume light. Today
may be busier, however, with markets focusing on reports that the benchmark
pension bill may progress as soon as today with the lower house committee due to
hold a vote Tuesday. This would mark the first of seven steps required to get
the bill's passed into law. The bill's progress may stall from then onwards,
however, with reports in Eurasia suggesting Bolsonaro will struggle to build a
supporting coalition in Congress quickly, with the report adding that new delays
to pension reform cannot be ruled out.
-USD/BRL 1m vols have ticked higher still Tuesday, rising back above 14 points
but still well shy of 16.2 point cycle high printed in late March. There are
some sizeable option expiries due to roll off this week that will likely take
focus as the week goes forward, particularly a $1.2bln strike in USD/BRL at 3.80
rolling off on Friday.