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USD/CHF Edges to New YTD Highs Amid Holiday-Thinned Volumes

FOREX
  • CHF is the poorest performer in G10 amid a quiet and thin trading session in Europe. USD/CHF sits just below new YTD highs printed at 0.9224 today, building on the strength noted across Tuesday trade. The Wednesday high is just 20 pips shy of the bull trigger and Oct’23 high of 0.9244 and the 50% retracement for the downleg off the Dec’22 high at 0.9240.
  • Labour Day market holidays across the continent keep many markets closed, and that's filtered into currency market activity. Cumulative G10 FX volumes are ~30% below average for this time of day - however liquidity and volumes should shore up slightly through the NY crossover.
  • JPY is softer as markets continue to lean back against intervention-inspired gains, and the recovery off lows for AUD has helped that cross stabilise above Y102.00, and any renewed rally will likely re-spark concerns over official action to mute JPY volatility.
  • Focus for the duration of the session rests on the ISM Manufacturing data for April, where markets expect a modest moderation in the prices paid component to 55.4 from 55.8, ahead of the Fed rate decision. While headline policy is expected unchanged, markets remain cognizant of the risk of a change in language surrounding the characterization of inflation - a notable hawkish risk as markets continue to price out the likelihood of Fed rate cuts across 2024.
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