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CHF
- CHF is now the poorest performer in G10 headed through the NY crossover, replacing the initially softer JPY. Post-data USD strength has tipped USD/CHF above the downtrendline drawn off the mid-March highs at 0.9440.
- The trendline intersects at 0.8951 today and a break and close above opens 0.8991 initially - the 23.6% retracement of the March downleg, ahead of 0.9146 further out.
- Next week's US data deluge and Fed decision naturally present the next risk events for the pair, but next Friday's April CPI also presents a risk: consensus looks for a 2.7% read - and an out of line reading would work against the SNB's March inflation forecasts.
Figure 1: USD/CHF breaks north of downtrendline
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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