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USD/CHF Shows Above Downtrendline - Close Above Could Open 0.9146

CHF
  • CHF is now the poorest performer in G10 headed through the NY crossover, replacing the initially softer JPY. Post-data USD strength has tipped USD/CHF above the downtrendline drawn off the mid-March highs at 0.9440.
  • The trendline intersects at 0.8951 today and a break and close above opens 0.8991 initially - the 23.6% retracement of the March downleg, ahead of 0.9146 further out.
  • Next week's US data deluge and Fed decision naturally present the next risk events for the pair, but next Friday's April CPI also presents a risk: consensus looks for a 2.7% read - and an out of line reading would work against the SNB's March inflation forecasts.
Figure 1: USD/CHF breaks north of downtrendline

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