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USD/CNH Above 7.3200, But CNH Outperforms Broader USD Gains

CNH

USD/CNH was mostly higher post the Asia close, in line with firmer dollar indices. In late NY trade we got above 7.3250, but sit slightly lower in early dealings today, last near 7.3210. CNH lost 0.19% for Wednesday's session. USD/CNY finished up near 7.3120, basically unchanged from end Tuesday levels. The CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan index) rose again, up 0.21% to 123.64.

  • Yesterday's industrial profit rebound (+17.2% y/y) has raised optimism that some parts of the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector, are on the improve. Indeed, Nomura economists raised their 2023 China GDP forecast to 4.8% from 4.6%.
  • We get official PMIs on Saturday, with the market no doubt focused on whether we see improvement in both the manufacturing and services side, which is what the consensus looks for.
  • Offsets for CNH came from the continued rise in US yields, whilst the PBoC pledged yesterday to support the economy in a precise and forceful manner. To recap, local equities finished higher (the CSI 300 up +0.21%). In Wednesday US trade the Golden Dragon index rose 0.80%.
  • Elsewhere a survey published by a Business School in Beijing highlights a pessimistic backdrop for the property sector (see this link for more details).
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