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USD/CNH Dips, Mixed Trends Elsewhere

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mixed today. USD/CNH has slipped amid some better data and a fresh cash injection via the 1yr MLF, but we are away from lows as onshore equities still struggle amid property headwinds. Other pairs are modestly lower but there is little follow through on weaker USD trends at this stage. USD/IDR is down from fresh multi month highs, owing to better August trade surplus data.

  • USD/CNH sits above earlier lows of just under 7.2600. We got last tracked near 7.2700. We had better than expected China data for August, while a fresh 1yr MLF cash injection is also seen as supportive for growth. Still, onshore equities are weaker after the break, with property developers struggling. CNH is 0.30% firmer versus NY closing levels on Thursday.
  • Spot USD/HKD sits near 7.8250. The pair unable to sustain breaks below this level in the past few sessions. Equally, moves back towards 7.8300 have drawn selling interest, leaving us in a reasonably tight range. HIBOR rates continue to track higher, albeit at a slowed pace compared to earlier in the week. The 1 month is just above 5.00%, the 3 month also above 5%, only slightly above Wednesday's fixing of 4.98%. US-HK 3 month rate differentials are still tracking lower, but the downtrend has slowed, last at +44bps. This may have helped slow the descent in USD/HKD.
  • The Rupee has opened dealing little changed from Thursday's closing levels in a muted start to today's trade. On Thursday USD/INR firmed above the 83 handle as broader USD trends dominated flows closing at its highest level of the week. On the wires today we have August Trade Balance, a deficit of $21bn is expected.
  • USD/MYR continues to tick higher in narrow ranges, the pair printed a fresh 3-month high before marginally paring gains. We now sit ~4% above levels seen in early August. On Friday the pair is stable, dealing a touch above the 4.68 handle. Looking ahead, the next data of note is August Export data on Monday.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing on Friday, the measure sits well within recent ranges and is ~0.6% below the top of the band. USD/SGD has ticked lower today, following as broader USD trends are dominating flows. The pair was supported below $1.36 yesterday and finished dealing ~0.2% higher. A reminder that the local docket is empty today. The next data of note is Monday's August Export data.
  • USD/IDR sits off earlier session highs, aided by the trade surplus beat. We opened around highs of 15390, which was fresh highs back to mid-March of this year, but now sit back near 15365. Session lows were at 15355. It's a similar backdrop or the 1 month NDF. Earlier highs were above 15400, but we now sit back close to 15380. The August trade data saw the trade surplus print double expectations at $3.12bn, versus $1.5bn projected.

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