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USD/CNH Holds Near 7.3100, MLF Rates Seen On Hold Today

CNH

USD/CNH was relatively range bound post the Asia close on Friday, albeit drifting modestly higher. We got to around the 7.3140 area before pulling back modestly towards 7.3130 by the close. We track slightly lower in early trade today, last near the 7.3115. USD/CNY finished at 7.3050, while the CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan index) rose 0.17% to 123.94, to the week basically unchanged (versus Oct 6 levels).

  • Late on Friday (Asia Pac time) we had mixed September credit data. Aggregate finance rose 4120bn yuan (3700bn yuan forecast), while new loans gained 2310bn yuan (2500bn yuan forecast). This followed earlier data showing CPI y/y back to flat, while trade data showed a modest upside surprise in export growth (albeit still negative in y/y terms).
  • Today we the 1yr MLF decision. No change is expected, with the current rate at 2.50%. In terms of MLF volumes, the consensus sits at 591bn yuan (but this is only based off 5 survey responses to BBG).
  • Sell-side views still see further easing risks from China in Q4, although some arguments for a greater role around fiscal stimulus to keep recovery momentum positive are being made.
  • Note we get Q3 GDP and September activity figures on Wednesday this week.
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