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USD/CNH Pulls Back From 7.00 Test

CNH

USD/CNH pulled back post the Asia close, in line with lower USD indices. The pair didn't get much traction sub 6.9600 though, and we currently track just above this level. This left CNH around 0.30% firmer for Monday's session, the first gain since Monday last week. The CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan index) edged slightly higher to 125.55.

  • The local data calendar remains quiet until official PMI prints for Feb come out tomorrow. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is also out. The market looks for improvement across the manufacturing and services sectors.
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index rose by 1.33% for Monday's session, putting the index back above 7000, and slightly away from a test of the simple 200-day MA.
  • Onshore equities were modestly weaker yesterday, while Northbound stock connect flows remained negative, -1.92bn yuan, albeit down on the average outflow pace from the past 3 sessions, around -4bn yuan.
  • 1 month implied vol for USD/CNH is higher, closer to 7%, compared with recent lows around 6%, but we remain well below late 2022 highs. It's a similar backdrop for the risk reversal space.
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