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USD/CNH Testing 100-day EMA Support, 1yr MLF Expected To Hold Steady Today

CNH

USD/CNH tracks near 7.2525 in early Wednesday dealings. The currency gained nearly 0.60% for the session. The pair is within striking distance of early Sep lows (near 7.2390) and also testing support at 100-day EMA (~7.2535). USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.2528, while the CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) lost 0.32% to 122.92, as the yuan underperformed the broader USD sell-off post the CPI miss.

  • Today we have the 1yr MLF decision, no change expected (2.50% current), while rollover is projected at 950bn yuan (prior 789bn yuan).
  • We also have monthly activity figures for October. IP is expected steady at 4.5%y/y, retail is forecast to improve further to 7.0%y/y (from 5.5%). Property investment and sales data will also be eyed.
  • A BBG story did the rounds late yesterday, which suggested that “China plans to provide at least CNY1tn of low-cost financing to the nation’s urban village renovation and affordable housing programs in its latest effort to shore up the struggling property market.”
  • This will keep real estate related equities in focus today. The headline CSI 300 index finished close to flat yesterday, while in US Tuesday trade, the Golden Dragon index rose 2.18%.
  • Later on Wednesday, China President XI and US President Biden are also expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco.
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