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CNY Fixed Stronger, But Onshore Breaks Above 6.8000

CNH

This was the 9th straight session providing a stronger than expected CNY fix. The market estimate was 6.7967, versus the actual print of 6.7898, a surprise of -69 pips.

  • We have to go back to Q1 2020 to see a larger downside surprise.
  • This step up in the firmer CNY fixing bias may reflect a lean against the break above 6.8000 in spot USD/CNH yesterday. Note onshore spot came close to breaking above this level yesterday, but in early trade has broken above this level.
  • Post today's fix we saw a brief dip below 6.8100, but the impact on sentiment has not been lasting. This has been the trend for much of the past week.
  • The early USD/CNH dip reflected better US equity futures, but we are now back to fresh highs of +6.8350, with stronger onshore spot levels for USD/CNY driving sentiment.
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This was the 9th straight session providing a stronger than expected CNY fix. The market estimate was 6.7967, versus the actual print of 6.7898, a surprise of -69 pips.

  • We have to go back to Q1 2020 to see a larger downside surprise.
  • This step up in the firmer CNY fixing bias may reflect a lean against the break above 6.8000 in spot USD/CNH yesterday. Note onshore spot came close to breaking above this level yesterday, but in early trade has broken above this level.
  • Post today's fix we saw a brief dip below 6.8100, but the impact on sentiment has not been lasting. This has been the trend for much of the past week.
  • The early USD/CNH dip reflected better US equity futures, but we are now back to fresh highs of +6.8350, with stronger onshore spot levels for USD/CNY driving sentiment.