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CNY Fixing Trend More Benign This Week

CNH

The CNY fix printed modestly weaker than expected. The market expected the USD/CNY fix at 6.7400, while the actual outcome came in at 6.7421.

  • Today's fix was only a modest upside surprise in USD/CNY terms of +21pips. This nearly offsets yesterday's downside surprise of -18pips. For the week we have seen a very modest cumulative surprise of +10pips.
  • This week has seen a down step in absolute surprises compared to last week's average of -35pips.
  • This may signal some degree of comfort from the authorities in terms of CNY levels and the pace of depreciation pressures. Clearly weaker USD sentiment has helped though. Note yesterday we also highlighting declining onshore trading volumes compared to April, which may signal less USD buying interest onshore, at least in the near term.
  • USD/CNH hasn't seen a great of reaction to the fix. We opened this morning with a downward bias, getting to just below 6.7350 before USD demand emerged, largely due to equity sentiment softening, while the weaker A$ has also weighed post the softer wages print. We are now back to 6.7550 at the time of writing.
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