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CNY Fixing Weaker Than Expected

CNH

The USD/CNY fixing printed at 6.7109, versus a market estimate of 6.7082.

  • In USD/CNY terms this represented a +27pip upside surprise. This is a departure from recent sessions, which have tended to see downside surprises.
  • Indeed, we have to go back to the 20th of April to see a larger upside surprise.
  • The 5-day sum of the cumulative error term sits back close to flat at -12 pips, we were -45pips on this metric yesterday.
  • USD/CNH has firmed a little post the fix, rising above 6.7030. Recent highs above 6.7200 have drawn selling interest in terms of upside levels to be mindful of.
  • CNH/JPY is off recent highs of 20.43, last at 20.32. The weaker yen trend may have be playing a role, in the sense the authorities are mindful of the yen slide and its impact on China export competitiveness, albeit at the margin.
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