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CNY Fixing Back To Firmer Bias

CNH

The USD/CNY fixing printed at 6.6863, versus a market estimate of 6.6892. Note the range of market estimates was 6.6866 to 6.6967, so we fell just below the bottom end of the range.

  • Today's fixing is a downside of -29pips surprise in USD/CNY terms, reversing this week's modest trend of upside surprises.
  • We have to go back to May 25th to see a larger downside surprise. The 5-day rolling sum of the error term is back to -6pips from +15pips yesterday.
  • USD/CNH has edged away from the session highs of close to 6.7000 post the fix, we now sit back at 6.6960. CNH is outperforming broader USD strength seen against the majors today.
  • Coming up soon is the Caixin manufacturing PMI print. 50.2 is expected versus 48.1 previously.
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